Cogstate Limited Beat Revenue Forecasts By 9.5%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a pretty great week for Cogstate Limited (ASX:CGS) shareholders, with its shares surging 19% to AU$1.40 in the week since its latest interim results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$0.031 per share roughly in line with what the analyst had forecast. Revenues of US$23m came in 9.5% ahead of analyst predictions. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Cogstate

Following last week's earnings report, Cogstate's sole analyst are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$47.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 7.9% to US$0.039 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$45.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.028 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analyst upgrading revenues and making a massive increase in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analyst has upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of AU$1.50, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Cogstate's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Cogstate's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Cogstate is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Cogstate's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Cogstate going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.