Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Treasury Wine Estates Limited's (ASX:TWE) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to A$0.17 on 3rd of October. This takes the dividend yield to 3.0%, which shareholders will be pleased with.

Check out our latest analysis for Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates' Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings

A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Before making this announcement, the company's dividend was much higher than its earnings. Without profits and cash flows increasing, it would be difficult for the company to continue paying the dividend at this level.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise by 93.4% over the next year. Under the assumption that the dividend will continue along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 55% which would be quite comfortable going to take the dividend forward.

Dividend Volatility

The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of A$0.13 in 2013 to the most recent total annual payment of A$0.35. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 10% per annum over that time. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.

Dividend Growth May Be Hard To Come By

Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Treasury Wine Estates has seen earnings per share falling at 6.6% per year over the last five years. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this can turn into a longer term trend.

Treasury Wine Estates' Dividend Doesn't Look Great

In summary, investors will like to be receiving a higher dividend, but we have some questions about whether it can be sustained over the long term. The company isn't making enough to be paying as much as it is, and the other factors don't look particularly promising either. We don't think that this is a great candidate to be an income stock.

Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Treasury Wine Estates (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.