Stock Analysis

Shareholders in Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) are in the red if they invested three years ago

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ASX:TWE
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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 31% in three years, versus a market return of about 21%.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the AU Beverage industry.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Treasury Wine Estates' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 14% each year. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 12% average annual decrease in the share price. So it seems that investor expectations of the company are staying pretty steady, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:TWE Earnings Per Share Growth November 13th 2022

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Treasury Wine Estates' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Treasury Wine Estates, it has a TSR of -26% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Treasury Wine Estates shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 17% over one year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 1.6% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. If you would like to research Treasury Wine Estates in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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