Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Australis Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:ATS) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Australis Oil & Gas
What Is Australis Oil & Gas's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Australis Oil & Gas had debt of US$14.0m at the end of June 2022, a reduction from US$19.1m over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$8.73m, its net debt is less, at about US$5.28m.
How Strong Is Australis Oil & Gas' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Australis Oil & Gas had liabilities of US$15.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$13.7m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$8.73m and US$4.20m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$16.7m.
Australis Oil & Gas has a market capitalization of US$43.3m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Even though Australis Oil & Gas's debt is only 1.6, its interest cover is really very low at 0.51. The main reason for this is that it has such high depreciation and amortisation. While companies often boast that these charges are non-cash, most such businesses will therefore require ongoing investment (that is not expensed.) In any case, it's safe to say the company has meaningful debt. Shareholders should be aware that Australis Oil & Gas's EBIT was down 39% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Australis Oil & Gas will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last two years, Australis Oil & Gas actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
Australis Oil & Gas's EBIT growth rate and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Australis Oil & Gas is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Australis Oil & Gas you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:ATS
Australis Oil & Gas
An upstream oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas assets.
Good value with adequate balance sheet.