What Does The Future Hold For HMC Capital Limited (ASX:HMC)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

Market forces rained on the parade of HMC Capital Limited (ASX:HMC) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. The stock price has risen 5.0% to AU$3.79 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.

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Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from HMC Capital's ten analysts is for revenues of AU$294m in 2026, which would reflect a huge 22% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.3% to AU$0.38. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$334m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.38 in 2026. So there's been a clear change in analyst sentiment in the recent update, with the analysts making a measurable cut to revenues and reconfirming their earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for HMC Capital

It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 22% to AU$5.06 following these changes.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of HMC Capital'shistorical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 19% annual revenue growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.8% per year. So although HMC Capital is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of HMC Capital's future valuation. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on HMC Capital after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HMC Capital going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.