HMC Capital Limited

ASX:HMC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.1b

HMC Capital Valuation

Is HMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HMC (A$9.94) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$8.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMC?

Key metric: As HMC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HMC. This is calculated by dividing HMC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HMC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio62.1x
EarningsAU$66.00m
Market CapAU$4.10b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.7x
PNI Pinnacle Investment Management Group
49.6x16.8%AU$4.5b
ARG Argo Investments
26.6xn/aAU$6.7b
GQG GQG Partners
11.5x9.7%AU$6.4b
AFI Australian Foundation Investment
31.2xn/aAU$9.2b
HMC HMC Capital
62.1x20.5%AU$4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.1x) compared to the peer average (29.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Capital Markets Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BPH BPH Energy
2.9xn/aUS$8.34m
KBC Keybridge Capital
1.4xn/aUS$6.46m
OEQ Orion Equities
0.7xn/aUS$1.22m
PEQA Pritchard Equity
2.7xn/aUS$861.02k
HMC 62.1xIndustry Avg. 20.5xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.1x) compared to the Australian Capital Markets industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio62.1x
Fair PE Ratio23.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$9.94
AU$10.00
+0.6%
20.9%AU$13.50AU$8.05n/a8
Dec ’25AU$12.33
AU$9.12
-26.1%
11.5%AU$11.19AU$8.05n/a8
Nov ’25AU$10.17
AU$8.49
-16.5%
5.8%AU$9.10AU$7.75n/a10
Oct ’25AU$8.25
AU$7.82
-5.2%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Sep ’25AU$8.46
AU$7.82
-7.6%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Aug ’25AU$8.05
AU$7.28
-9.6%
10.2%AU$8.37AU$5.99n/a9
Jul ’25AU$7.02
AU$7.15
+1.8%
9.1%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a9
Jun ’25AU$7.20
AU$7.00
-2.8%
8.7%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a8
May ’25AU$6.26
AU$6.75
+7.8%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Apr ’25AU$7.19
AU$6.72
-6.5%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Mar ’25AU$7.00
AU$6.72
-3.9%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Feb ’25AU$5.97
AU$5.55
-7.0%
9.7%AU$6.35AU$4.54n/a10
Jan ’25AU$6.16
AU$5.33
-13.5%
10.2%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a10
Dec ’24AU$4.87
AU$5.33
+9.4%
10.1%AU$6.00AU$4.35AU$12.3310
Nov ’24AU$4.27
AU$5.30
+24.2%
10.6%AU$6.00AU$4.35AU$10.179
Oct ’24AU$4.71
AU$5.40
+14.6%
9.8%AU$6.00AU$4.54AU$8.259
Sep ’24AU$5.36
AU$5.31
-1.0%
10.7%AU$6.00AU$4.51AU$8.4610
Aug ’24AU$5.19
AU$4.90
-5.6%
11.1%AU$5.80AU$3.81AU$8.0510
Jul ’24AU$5.06
AU$4.91
-3.0%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.0210
Jun ’24AU$4.29
AU$4.84
+12.9%
10.2%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.2010
May ’24AU$4.06
AU$4.88
+20.1%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$6.2610
Apr ’24AU$3.59
AU$4.88
+35.9%
12.4%AU$5.78AU$3.81AU$7.199
Mar ’24AU$4.24
AU$5.00
+17.9%
13.7%AU$5.78AU$3.24AU$7.0010
Feb ’24AU$4.68
AU$5.31
+13.4%
14.2%AU$5.90AU$3.30AU$5.9710
Jan ’24AU$4.26
AU$5.42
+27.2%
15.2%AU$6.27AU$3.30AU$6.1611
Dec ’23AU$4.84
AU$5.50
+13.7%
16.6%AU$6.70AU$3.30AU$4.8711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 20:54
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

HMC Capital Limited is covered by 14 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Andrew MacFarlaneBell Potter