HMC Capital Limited

ASX:HMC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.8b

HMC Capital Valuation

Is HMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HMC (A$11.89) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$7.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMC?

Key metric: As HMC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HMC. This is calculated by dividing HMC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HMC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio74.2x
EarningsAU$66.00m
Market CapAU$4.83b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average48.5x
PNI Pinnacle Investment Management Group
48.5x16.8%AU$4.3b
ARG Argo Investments
27.1xn/aAU$6.9b
AFI Australian Foundation Investment
31.6xn/aAU$9.4b
NWL Netwealth Group
86.7x16.5%AU$7.2b
HMC HMC Capital
74.2x20.5%AU$4.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the peer average (48.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KBC Keybridge Capital
1.4xn/aUS$6.46m
OEQ Orion Equities
0.6xn/aUS$1.22m
QUE Queste Communications
0.8xn/aUS$862.51k
PEQA Pritchard Equity
2.7xn/aUS$861.02k
No more companies available in this PE range
HMC 74.2xIndustry Avg. 20.0xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the Australian Capital Markets industry average (20x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio74.2x
Fair PE Ratio23.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$11.89
AU$8.99
-24.4%
11.7%AU$11.19AU$7.95n/a9
Nov ’25AU$10.17
AU$8.49
-16.5%
5.8%AU$9.10AU$7.75n/a10
Oct ’25AU$8.25
AU$7.82
-5.2%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Sep ’25AU$8.46
AU$7.82
-7.6%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Aug ’25AU$8.05
AU$7.28
-9.6%
10.2%AU$8.37AU$5.99n/a9
Jul ’25AU$7.02
AU$7.15
+1.8%
9.1%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a9
Jun ’25AU$7.20
AU$7.00
-2.8%
8.7%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a8
May ’25AU$6.26
AU$6.75
+7.8%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Apr ’25AU$7.19
AU$6.72
-6.5%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Mar ’25AU$7.00
AU$6.72
-3.9%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Feb ’25AU$5.97
AU$5.55
-7.0%
9.7%AU$6.35AU$4.54n/a10
Jan ’25AU$6.16
AU$5.33
-13.5%
10.2%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a10
Dec ’24AU$4.87
AU$5.33
+9.4%
10.1%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a10
Nov ’24AU$4.27
AU$5.30
+24.2%
10.6%AU$6.00AU$4.35AU$10.179
Oct ’24AU$4.71
AU$5.40
+14.6%
9.8%AU$6.00AU$4.54AU$8.259
Sep ’24AU$5.36
AU$5.31
-1.0%
10.7%AU$6.00AU$4.51AU$8.4610
Aug ’24AU$5.19
AU$4.90
-5.6%
11.1%AU$5.80AU$3.81AU$8.0510
Jul ’24AU$5.06
AU$4.91
-3.0%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.0210
Jun ’24AU$4.29
AU$4.84
+12.9%
10.2%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.2010
May ’24AU$4.06
AU$4.88
+20.1%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$6.2610
Apr ’24AU$3.59
AU$4.88
+35.9%
12.4%AU$5.78AU$3.81AU$7.199
Mar ’24AU$4.24
AU$5.00
+17.9%
13.7%AU$5.78AU$3.24AU$7.0010
Feb ’24AU$4.68
AU$5.31
+13.4%
14.2%AU$5.90AU$3.30AU$5.9710
Jan ’24AU$4.26
AU$5.42
+27.2%
15.2%AU$6.27AU$3.30AU$6.1611
Dec ’23AU$4.84
AU$5.50
+13.7%
16.6%AU$6.70AU$3.30AU$4.8711
Nov ’23AU$4.99
AU$5.80
+16.1%
11.5%AU$6.70AU$4.29AU$4.2711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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