Challenger Limited

ASX:CGF Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.2b

Challenger Valuation

Is CGF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CGF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CGF (A$6.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CGF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CGF?

Key metric: As CGF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CGF. This is calculated by dividing CGF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CGF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.9x
EarningsAU$134.50m
Market CapAU$4.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CGF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CGF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average51.1x
AMP AMP
54.6x26.6%AU$3.8b
PNI Pinnacle Investment Management Group
48.5x16.3%AU$4.4b
HMC HMC Capital
74.2x20.5%AU$4.9b
ARG Argo Investments
27.1xn/aAU$6.9b
CGF Challenger
30.9x20.3%AU$4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CGF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the peer average (51.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CGF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Diversified Financial Industry?

25 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CGF 30.9xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies75PE01224364860+
25 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CGF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the Global Diversified Financial industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CGF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CGF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.9x
Fair PE Ratio22.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CGF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CGF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.08
AU$7.80
+28.3%
7.1%AU$8.60AU$6.80n/a14
Nov ’25AU$6.00
AU$7.83
+30.4%
6.5%AU$8.60AU$6.80n/a14
Oct ’25AU$6.56
AU$7.99
+21.7%
6.8%AU$8.80AU$7.00n/a13
Sep ’25AU$6.88
AU$7.95
+15.5%
6.7%AU$8.80AU$7.00n/a14
Aug ’25AU$7.06
AU$7.63
+8.0%
5.3%AU$8.50AU$6.95n/a14
Jul ’25AU$6.90
AU$7.61
+10.3%
6.2%AU$8.50AU$6.65n/a14
Jun ’25AU$6.48
AU$7.61
+17.5%
6.2%AU$8.50AU$6.65n/a14
May ’25AU$6.49
AU$7.55
+16.3%
6.3%AU$8.50AU$6.65n/a14
Apr ’25AU$7.11
AU$7.48
+5.2%
6.6%AU$8.50AU$6.65n/a14
Mar ’25AU$6.75
AU$7.48
+10.8%
6.6%AU$8.50AU$6.65n/a14
Feb ’25AU$6.43
AU$7.05
+9.6%
7.2%AU$8.00AU$6.05n/a13
Jan ’25AU$6.49
AU$6.99
+7.7%
7.3%AU$8.00AU$6.05n/a13
Dec ’24AU$5.92
AU$6.99
+18.1%
7.3%AU$8.00AU$6.05n/a13
Nov ’24AU$5.83
AU$6.99
+19.9%
7.3%AU$8.00AU$6.05AU$6.0013
Oct ’24AU$6.42
AU$7.04
+9.7%
7.5%AU$8.00AU$6.10AU$6.5613
Sep ’24AU$6.69
AU$7.07
+5.7%
7.6%AU$8.00AU$6.10AU$6.8815
Aug ’24AU$7.02
AU$7.18
+2.3%
9.4%AU$8.60AU$6.00AU$7.0614
Jul ’24AU$6.48
AU$7.17
+10.6%
9.3%AU$8.60AU$6.00AU$6.9014
Jun ’24AU$6.20
AU$7.16
+15.5%
9.4%AU$8.60AU$5.90AU$6.4814
May ’24AU$6.18
AU$7.24
+17.2%
10.1%AU$8.60AU$5.90AU$6.4913
Apr ’24AU$6.24
AU$7.67
+22.9%
8.2%AU$8.60AU$5.90AU$7.1114
Mar ’24AU$7.48
AU$7.77
+3.9%
5.2%AU$8.60AU$7.20AU$6.7514
Feb ’24AU$7.27
AU$7.27
+0.04%
7.3%AU$7.93AU$6.10AU$6.4314
Jan ’24AU$7.62
AU$7.07
-7.2%
7.3%AU$7.80AU$6.10AU$6.4914
Dec ’23AU$7.25
AU$7.07
-2.5%
7.3%AU$7.80AU$6.10AU$5.9214
Nov ’23AU$7.15
AU$7.06
-1.3%
7.3%AU$7.80AU$6.10AU$5.8314

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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