Challenger Limited

ASX:CGF Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.7b

Challenger Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Challenger's revenue is forecast to decline at 20.7% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 5.3% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 7.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.7% in 3 years.

Key information

5.3%

Earnings growth rate

7.18%

EPS growth rate

Diversified Financial earnings growth-24.1%
Revenue growth rate-20.7%
Future return on equity12.74%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated15 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 03

CGF: Earnings Delivery And P E Calibration Will Shape Future Repricing Path

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Challenger slightly higher to A$9.43 from A$9.38, reflecting small adjustments to discount rate assumptions, revenue growth expectations and projected profit margins, while keeping future P/E assumptions broadly in line with recent sector research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent sector research around global alternative asset managers, including several price target cuts for Carlyle from large brokers such as JPMorgan and others, highlights how quickly sentiment can swing when earnings quality is under scrutiny.
Narrative Update • May 14

CGF: Capital Returns And P E Calibration Will Shape Future Repricing Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Challenger by A$0.09 to reflect slightly lower assumed discount rates and a modestly reduced future P/E multiple, while keeping fair value estimates broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent sector research on alternative asset managers has focused on resetting valuation assumptions, adjusting earnings expectations for fee based businesses and reassessing how much multiple investors may be willing to pay for forward earnings.
Narrative Update • Apr 27

CGF: Capital Returns And Cost Discipline Will Support Future Repricing Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Challenger to A$9.38 from A$9.50, citing slightly softer assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples, while keeping the discount rate broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent research across the broader asset management sector shows a mix of optimism and caution on valuation, execution and growth, which offers useful context for Challenger investors assessing the latest price target trim.
Narrative Update • Apr 09

CGF: Capital Returns And Cost Discipline Will Support Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have nudged their price target for Challenger slightly higher to A$9.50 from A$9.44, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate and future P/E that are broadly consistent with recent adjustments seen across alternative asset managers. Analyst Commentary The recent tweak to Challenger's A$9.50 price target fits into a broader pattern that research desks have been applying across global alternative asset managers, including the Carlyle updates referenced here.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

CGF: Capital Returns And Fee Margins Will Drive Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have adjusted Challenger's price target slightly lower to A$9.44, citing updated sector-wide assumptions on earnings flows, discount rates and future P/E multiples, while still reflecting the same fair value estimate in their models. Analyst Commentary Recent changes to Challenger's valuation echo broader adjustments seen across the alternative asset manager space, where analysts have been fine tuning targets in response to updated assumptions on earnings flows, discount rates and P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 11

CGF: Capital Returns And Fee Margins Will Drive Forward Market Repricing

Analysts have trimmed their A$ price target on Challenger, citing slightly more cautious assumptions on discount rates, revenue trends and margins, while still applying a modestly higher future P/E multiple in line with recent sector research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on global alternative asset managers provides some context for how analysts are thinking about valuation, growth and execution risks that can be relevant when assessing Challenger.
Narrative Update • Feb 23

CGF: Capital Returns And Margin Execution Will Shape Forward Market Sentiment

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Challenger to A$9.44 from A$9.63. This reflects slightly softer revenue growth expectations, a modestly lower discount rate, improved profit margin assumptions and a lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

CGF: Sector Sentiment And Fee-Based Opportunities Will Shape Forward Returns

Analysts have nudged up their price target on Challenger, citing slightly higher fair value estimates, a modestly higher discount rate, and a small adjustment to future P/E assumptions as the key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts around the sector are using higher price targets and slightly richer P/E assumptions to signal confidence in execution and earnings quality for similar asset managers, and that tone is feeding into how some investors read the recent Challenger target move.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

CGF: Sector Sentiment Swings And Credit Risks Will Shape Future Returns

Narrative Update on Challenger Analysts have nudged their price targets on Challenger slightly higher, reflecting a modest uplift in their fair value estimate to 9.58, a small change in the discount rate, and only marginal adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around comparable alternative asset managers gives some useful context for how analysts are thinking about valuation, growth, and execution risk for names like Challenger.
Narrative Update • Jan 06

CGF: Capital Markets Recovery And Credit Risks Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have made a modest trim to their price target on Challenger to about A$9.47 from roughly A$9.47. This reflects slight adjustments to fair value, discount rate assumptions and expected P/E, while still seeing support from a recovering capital markets backdrop cited in recent research on alternative asset managers.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

CGF: Capital Markets Rebound And Credit Concerns Will Shape Returns Ahead

Analysts have nudged their price target on Challenger modestly higher to reflect a slightly lower perceived risk profile and stable long term earnings multiples, even as they continue to factor in cautious assumptions around capital markets activity and muted near term returns across alternative asset managers. Analyst Commentary Recent sector research on alternative asset managers highlights a mixed but generally constructive backdrop that informs views on Challenger.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

CGF: Capital Markets Activity And Credit Conditions Will Drive Sentiment This Year

Challenger's analyst price target has increased slightly, rising from $9.38 to $9.47. Analysts cite broader market stabilization and modest improvements in sector valuation expectations.
Narrative Update • Nov 13

CGF: Capital Market Activity And Discount Rates Will Influence Market Sentiment This Year

Challenger's analyst price target has increased modestly, rising by $0.18 to $9.38. Analysts are factoring in stable revenue growth, a slightly improved discount rate, and supportive updates from recent sector research, despite ongoing concerns over valuations and expected returns.
Narrative Update • Oct 30

CGF: Future Market Conditions Will Guide Earnings Momentum And Balance Near-Term Risks

Analysts have increased their price target for Challenger from $9.03 to $9.19 per share, citing expectations for improved capital markets conditions and positive momentum in fundamentals. This comes despite modest adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin forecasts.
Narrative Update • Oct 16

APRA Reforms And Digital Integration Will Uplift Retirement Income Sectors

Challenger's analyst price target has been modestly increased to $9.03 from $8.83, as analysts cite improving fundamentals and expectations of stronger future performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a range of perspectives on Challenger's outlook, shedding light on both optimism and reservations among analysts.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

APRA Reforms And Digital Integration Will Uplift Retirement Income Sectors

Despite improved business momentum, sector tailwinds, and greater earnings diversification supporting a positive outlook, the Challenger consensus Analyst Price Target remained unchanged at A$8.83. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite strong Q2 results and accelerating business momentum as key drivers for upward price target revisions.
Analysis Article • Jul 24

Shareholders Should Be Pleased With Challenger Limited's (ASX:CGF) Price

When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may consider...
Analysis Article • Mar 28

Challenger Limited's (ASX:CGF) Price In Tune With Earnings

When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may consider...
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New Narrative • Feb 23

Focus On Longer-Duration Annuities And Technology Will Improve Future Efficiency

Strategic sales shift to longer-duration annuities boosts book quality, earnings, and ROE, with a focus on lifetime and Japanese annuities.
Analysis Article • Dec 10

Earnings Tell The Story For Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.9x Challenger Limited ( ASX:CGF ) may be sending bearish signals at the...
Analysis Article • Aug 16

Challenger's (ASX:CGF) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Challenger Limited's ( ASX:CGF ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to A$0.135 on...
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) Not Flying Under The Radar

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.7x Challenger Limited ( ASX:CGF ) may be sending very bearish signals...
Analysis Article • Dec 19

Challenger Limited's (ASX:CGF) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors

When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider...
Analysis Article • Aug 19

Challenger's (ASX:CGF) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Challenger Limited's ( ASX:CGF ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 20th of September to A$0.12, with...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:CGF - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20281,1105324274749
6/30/20271,05449740645110
6/30/202699251331327810
12/31/20252,8004591,8841,884N/A
9/30/20252,9453261,1421,142N/A
6/30/20253,090192399400N/A
3/31/20253,017170370371N/A
12/31/20243,003147341342N/A
9/30/20242,896141695697N/A
6/30/20242,7891351,0501,051N/A
3/31/20242,993168789793N/A
12/31/20233,196202529535N/A
9/30/20232,886191906913N/A
6/30/20232,5751791,2831,291N/A
3/31/20234181091,7111,717N/A
12/31/2022-917152,1572,161N/A
9/30/2022-6241402,3212,324N/A
6/30/2022-3302642,4842,487N/A
3/31/20221,5924602,7772,784N/A
12/31/20213,5156563,0693,081N/A
9/30/20213,4216242,8172,829N/A
6/30/20213,3265922,5642,577N/A
3/31/20212,604891,4761,486N/A
12/31/20201,883-414388394N/A
9/30/20201,848-415432440N/A
6/30/20201,814-416476485N/A
3/31/20202,69453695712N/A
12/31/20193,575522914939N/A
9/30/20193,428415N/A796N/A
6/30/20193,280308N/A652N/A
3/31/20192,968221N/A1,159N/A
12/31/20182,655133N/A1,665N/A
9/30/20182,760228N/A1,821N/A
6/30/20182,865323N/A1,977N/A
3/31/20182,997357N/A1,801N/A
12/31/20173,128392N/A1,624N/A
9/30/20173,035395N/A1,611N/A
6/30/20172,941398N/A1,597N/A
3/31/20172,490346N/A1,676N/A
12/31/20162,040295N/A1,755N/A
9/30/20162,039311N/A1,519N/A
6/30/20162,038328N/A1,282N/A
3/31/20162,017365N/A1,049N/A
12/31/20151,996403N/A815N/A
9/30/20151,950351N/A815N/A
6/30/20151,904299N/A816N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CGF's forecast earnings growth (5.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).

Earnings vs Market: CGF's earnings (5.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CGF's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CGF's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-20.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CGF's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-20.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CGF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/17 14:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/17 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Challenger Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Andrew AdamsBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Marcus BarnardBell Potter