Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Endeavour Group Limited (ASX:EDV) After Its Full-Year Results

Last week, you might have seen that Endeavour Group Limited (ASX:EDV) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.5% to AU$5.57 in the past week. Revenues of AU$12b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at AU$0.29, missing estimates by 2.1%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Endeavour Group

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Endeavour Group are now predicting revenues of AU$12.4b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be AU$0.30, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$12.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.32 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$6.09, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Endeavour Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$6.90 and the most bearish at AU$5.60 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Endeavour Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Endeavour Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Endeavour Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Endeavour Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.