Stock Analysis

Even after rising 12% this past week, Freelancer (ASX:FLN) shareholders are still down 59% over the past five years

ASX:FLN
Source: Shutterstock

Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the Freelancer Limited (ASX:FLN) share price managed to fall 59% over five long years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least.

While the last five years has been tough for Freelancer shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Freelancer

Because Freelancer made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over five years, Freelancer grew its revenue at 1.5% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 10% per year, in that time. We'd want to see proof that future revenue growth is likely to be significantly stronger before getting too interested in Freelancer. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:FLN Earnings and Revenue Growth October 18th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Freelancer shareholders are down 6.0% for the year, but the market itself is up 8.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 10% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Freelancer is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Freelancer is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.