Stock Analysis

Investing in Computershare (ASX:CPU) three years ago would have delivered you a 78% gain

ASX:CPU
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Computershare Limited (ASX:CPU) shareholders have seen the share price rise 64% over three years, well in excess of the market return (2.7%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 25%, including dividends.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Computershare

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Computershare was able to grow its EPS at 33% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 18% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:CPU Earnings Per Share Growth June 5th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Computershare has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Computershare's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Computershare's TSR for the last 3 years was 78%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Computershare has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 13%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Computershare you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.