The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Zicom Group Limited (ASX:ZGL) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is Zicom Group's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Zicom Group had S$28.4m in debt in June 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it also had S$7.85m in cash, and so its net debt is S$20.5m.
A Look At Zicom Group's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Zicom Group had liabilities of S$58.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of S$13.6m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of S$7.85m and S$26.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total S$38.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the S$11.2m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Zicom Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Zicom Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Over 12 months, Zicom Group saw its revenue hold pretty steady, and it did not report positive earnings before interest and tax. While that's not too bad, we'd prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
Over the last twelve months Zicom Group produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Its EBIT loss was a whopping S$6.8m. Combining this information with the significant liabilities we already touched on makes us very hesitant about this stock, to say the least. Of course, it may be able to improve its situation with a bit of luck and good execution. Nevertheless, we would not bet on it given that it vaporized S$5.1m in cash over the last twelve months, and it doesn't have much by way of liquid assets. So we think this stock is risky, like walking through a dirty dog park with a mask on. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Zicom Group is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About ASX:ZGL
Zicom Group
Manufactures and sells marine deck machinery, fluid regulating and metering stations, transit concrete mixers, foundation and geotechnical equipment, and precision engineered and automation equipment in Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, China, Bangladesh, and internationally.
Good value with mediocre balance sheet.