With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 35.1x Reece Limited (ASX:REH) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
There hasn't been much to differentiate Reece's and the market's earnings growth lately. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for Reece
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Reece will help you uncover what's on the horizon.Is There Enough Growth For Reece?
Reece's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 8.1% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 47% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 6.0% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it concerning that Reece is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Reece's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Reece has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:REH
Reece
Engages in the distribution of plumbing, bathroom, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, waterworks, and refrigeration products to commercial and residential customers in Australia, the United States, and New Zealand.
Flawless balance sheet with acceptable track record.