MyState (ASX:MYS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MYS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MYS (A$4.24) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$6.18)

MYS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

MYS Stock Overview

MyState Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, trustee, and managed fund products and services in Australia.

Rewards

Trading at 31.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.85% per year

Earnings grew by 12.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Unstable dividend track record

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

MyState Competitors

Australian Finance Group

ASX:AFG

AU$415.8m

Auswide Bank

ASX:ABA

AU$265.5m

Resimac Group

ASX:RMC

AU$488.5m

Pepper Money

ASX:PPM

AU$565.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for MyState
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$4.24
52 Week High	AU$5.44
52 Week Low	AU$3.78
Beta	0.86
1 Month Change	-9.79%
3 Month Change	-15.54%
1 Year Change	-8.23%
3 Year Change	-6.81%
5 Year Change	-11.67%
Change since IPO	41.33%

Recent News & Updates

Feb 21

MyState (ASX:MYS) Has Re-Affirmed Its Dividend Of AU$0.13

MyState Limited ( ASX:MYS ) will pay a dividend of AU$0.13 on the 15th of March. This means the annual payment is 5.1...

Shareholder Returns

	MYS	AU Mortgage	AU Market
7D	11.6%	1.6%	1.4%
1Y	-8.2%	-10.8%	-11.3%

Return vs Industry: MYS exceeded the Australian Mortgage industry which returned -10.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MYS exceeded the Australian Market which returned -11.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MYS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MYS volatility
MYS Average Weekly Movement	3.7%
Mortgage Industry Average Movement	4.2%
Market Average Movement	9.7%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: MYS is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MYS's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	n/a	Brett Morgan	https://www.mystatelimited.com.au

MyState Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, trustee, and managed fund products and services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Banking and Wealth Management. It offers personal and commercial lending, mortgage lending, savings and investment products, wealth management services, and insurance products under MyState Bank brand.

MyState Fundamentals Summary

How do MyState's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MYS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$429.97m
Earnings (TTM)	AU$35.93m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$143.06m

12.5x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/B Ratio

Is MYS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MYS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$143.06m
Cost of Revenue	AU$0
Gross Profit	AU$143.06m
Other Expenses	AU$107.13m
Earnings	AU$35.93m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 19, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.34
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	25.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio	286.9%

How did MYS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

6.0%

Current Dividend Yield

71%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MYS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MYS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MYS. This is calculated by dividing MYS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MYS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$429.97m

MYS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MYS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MYS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MYS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.6x
AFG Australian Finance Group	7.6x	9.2%	AU$415.8m
ABA Auswide Bank	10x	n/a	AU$265.5m
RMC Resimac Group	4.3x	7.1%	AU$488.5m
PPM Pepper Money	4.3x	4.7%	AU$565.0m
MYS MyState	12.5x	11.8%	AU$430.0m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MYS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (6.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MYS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MYS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Global Mortgage industry average (11x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MYS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MYS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.5x
Fair PE Ratio	11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MYS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MYS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MYS (A$4.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MYS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: MYS is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.1x)

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Future Growth

How is MyState forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MYS's forecast earnings growth (11.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: MYS's earnings (11.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MYS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MYS's revenue (6.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MYS's revenue (6.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MYS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).

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Past Performance

How has MyState performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

3.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MYS has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MYS's current net profit margins (25.1%) are higher than last year (24.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MYS's earnings have grown by 3.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MYS's earnings growth over the past year (12.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (3.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MYS earnings growth over the past year (12.4%) exceeded the Mortgage industry 10%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: MYS's Return on Equity (8.6%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is MyState's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: MYS's Assets to Equity ratio (17.3x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: MYS has a low allowance for bad loans (18%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 82% of MYS's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: MYS has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (86%).

Low Risk Deposits: MYS's Loans to Deposits ratio (111%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: MYS has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.5%).

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is MyState current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

6.01%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MYS's dividend (6.01%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.75%).

High Dividend: MYS's dividend (6.01%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.85%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MYS's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MYS's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (70.6%), MYS's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: MYS's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (69.7% payout ratio).

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Brett Morgan

0.42

Tenure

Mr. Brett Alexander Morgan has been Director of MyState Limited since January 17, 2022 and serves as Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer since January 2022. He had been Chief Executive Officer of B...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MYS's management team is considered experienced (4.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MYS's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MYS insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 6.3%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30