Should You Reconsider Österreichische Post After Double Digit Gains and New Parcel Hub Announcement?

If you are weighing your next move with Österreichische Post stock, you are not alone. This postal and logistics giant has quietly delivered some steady results, and its stock price has followed suit. Over the last week, shares in Österreichische Post are up 1.4%, building on a modest 0.7% gain over the past month. Zooming out, the performance looks even more reassuring, with a 2.4% year-to-date return, a 4.3% gain in the past year, and a healthy 32.3% appreciation over the last five years.

What might be driving these moves? Recent trends in European logistics and postal demand have kept sentiment positive, while new market developments have added a sense of renewed optimism about the company's future growth. Risk perceptions have shifted as well, with many investors viewing Österreichische Post as a reliable option as the sector evolves.

So, is it fairly valued after this steady climb? According to our analysis, Österreichische Post scores a 5 out of 6 on our valuation checklist, suggesting it still looks undervalued by most measures. If you are eager to see whether it makes sense to buy, hold, or adjust your position, let's peel back the layers of this score by looking closely at how we measure value. And if you are searching for a sharper tool to truly understand what the numbers mean, stay tuned because there is an even better approach coming up at the end of this article.

Österreichische Post delivered 4.3% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Logistics industry.

Approach 1: Österreichische Post Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by forecasting its future cash flows and discounting them back to their present value. This approach allows investors to judge what a business is truly worth today based on anticipated future performance.

For Österreichische Post, the latest reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at -€207.6 million. This figure is projected to improve significantly, with analyst estimates up to 2029 showing a rise to €264.3 million. Fiscal years beyond the analyst horizon rely on more conservative extrapolations. The overall 10-year outlook suggests a robust recovery and growth trajectory for the company’s cash flows in euros.

• The projected FCF for 2026 is €225.1 million, discounted today to €211.0 million.
• By 2029, FCF is forecast to reach €264.3 million, discounted to €204.3 million in today’s terms.

Using this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, the estimated fair value per share is €77.69. Compared to the current share price, this represents a striking 62.3% discount. The stock appears significantly undervalued according to these cash flow projections.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Österreichische Post.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Österreichische Post is undervalued by 62.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Österreichische Post Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used to value profitable companies because it directly compares a stock’s price to the earnings it generates, making it a reliable barometer for established businesses like Österreichische Post.

What is a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio? That depends on several factors, especially a company’s growth prospects and risk profile. Higher growth often justifies a higher PE, while greater perceived risk typically results in a lower fair ratio.

Currently, Österreichische Post is trading at a PE ratio of 15.30x. This is just below the industry average of 16.30x and much lower than the average for its publicly listed peers, which is 30.83x. While these comparisons are informative, they can miss the nuances of an individual company’s circumstances.

To address this, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio” based on factors such as Germany’s earnings expectations, margins, risk, the logistics sector, and the company’s own market cap. In this case, the Fair Ratio is 17.03x. This approach goes beyond simple comparisons by providing a tailored benchmark grounded in the company’s realities and future growth outlook.

Since Österreichische Post’s actual PE ratio is slightly below its Fair Ratio, the shares appear undervalued on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Österreichische Post Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your story, the perspective you have on a company like Österreichische Post, built upon your expectations for its future revenue growth, earnings, margins, and risk factors. Instead of just looking at a number, Narratives link your beliefs about how the business will perform to concrete financial forecasts and a resulting fair value, letting you see the direct impact of your investment thesis.

This approach is now fully accessible on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors share and compare their Narratives quickly and easily. Narratives not only help clarify when a stock looks attractive or overpriced by comparing your calculated Fair Value to the current market price, but they also update automatically as news, earnings releases, or major company events unfold. For example, some investors believe Österreichische Post’s fair value is as high as €33.7, seeing opportunity in e-commerce expansion and margin improvement, while others are more cautious, setting it as low as €25.0 due to mail decline and labor costs.

Do you think there's more to the story for Österreichische Post? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com