Österreichische Post AG

WBAG:POST Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.1b

Österreichische Post Valuation

Is POST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of POST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: POST (€31.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€77.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: POST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for POST?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

POST key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.8x
PEG Ratio-8.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does POST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for POST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
FLU Flughafen Wien
25.2x10.8%€4.2b
603056 DEPPON LOGISTICS
20.6x32.1%CN¥15.4b
9065 Sankyu
13x7.1%JP¥302.7b
HUBG Hub Group
15.7x7.7%US$2.6b
POST Österreichische Post
16.1x-1.9%€2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: POST is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does POST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: POST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is POST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

POST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.1x
Fair PE Ratio16.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: POST is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst POST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€31.65
€29.08
-8.1%
10.6%€33.30€26.00n/a4
Mar ’25€30.00
€29.28
-2.4%
9.9%€33.30€26.00n/a4
Feb ’25€31.20
€30.18
-3.3%
12.4%€35.00€26.00n/a4
Jan ’25€32.70
€30.18
-7.7%
12.4%€35.00€26.00n/a4
Dec ’24€31.50
€29.93
-5.0%
13.5%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Nov ’24€29.95
€29.50
-1.5%
14.9%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Oct ’24€31.05
€29.50
-5.0%
14.9%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Sep ’24€31.90
€29.65
-7.1%
14.3%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Aug ’24€33.05
€29.28
-11.4%
14.2%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Jul ’24€32.70
€29.40
-10.1%
13.8%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Jun ’24€33.20
€29.40
-11.4%
13.8%€35.00€25.00n/a4
May ’24€35.00
€30.50
-12.9%
11.8%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Apr ’24€34.05
€30.50
-10.4%
11.8%€35.00€25.00n/a4
Mar ’24€33.45
€29.86
-10.7%
11.6%€35.00€25.00€30.005
Feb ’24€33.05
€29.66
-10.3%
10.7%€34.00€25.00€31.205
Jan ’24€29.40
€29.13
-0.9%
9.7%€34.00€25.00€32.706
Dec ’23€32.75
€29.13
-11.0%
9.7%€34.00€25.00€31.506
Nov ’23€28.55
€29.13
+2.0%
9.7%€34.00€25.00€29.956
Oct ’23€27.30
€29.47
+7.9%
10.4%€34.00€25.00€31.056
Sep ’23€27.65
€29.47
+6.6%
10.4%€34.00€25.00€31.906
Aug ’23€28.60
€29.58
+3.4%
10.2%€34.00€25.00€33.056
Jul ’23€27.50
€29.58
+7.6%
10.2%€34.00€25.00€32.706
Jun ’23€28.15
€29.92
+6.3%
9.8%€34.00€25.00€33.206
May ’23€30.70
€33.00
+7.5%
16.7%€44.00€28.00€35.006
Apr ’23€32.75
€34.42
+5.1%
16.4%€44.00€28.00€34.056
Mar ’23€36.00
€36.70
+1.9%
15.3%€44.00€30.00€33.456

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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