Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Voestalpine AG (VIE:VOE) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Voestalpine
How Much Debt Does Voestalpine Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Voestalpine had debt of €4.08b at the end of March 2022, a reduction from €4.46b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of €988.4m, its net debt is less, at about €3.09b.
How Strong Is Voestalpine's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Voestalpine had liabilities of €6.03b falling due within a year, and liabilities of €3.92b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €988.4m as well as receivables valued at €2.29b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €6.67b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €3.73b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Voestalpine would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Voestalpine has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.4. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 21.9 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Even more impressive was the fact that Voestalpine grew its EBIT by 277% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Voestalpine can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Voestalpine actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
Based on what we've seen Voestalpine is not finding it easy, given its level of total liabilities, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Voestalpine is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Voestalpine has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WBAG:VOE
Voestalpine
Processes, develops, manufactures, and sells steel products in Austria, the European Union, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.