Is Now the Right Moment to Revisit Voestalpine After Its 81% Rally in 2025?

Are you eyeing Voestalpine and wondering if now is your moment to invest, hold, or walk away? You're not alone. After a year of eye-catching gains, this stock has many talking, and for good reason. Voestalpine has soared an impressive 81.7% year-to-date, with the past 30 days alone bringing investors a robust 15.2% return. Even looking beyond the short term, the stock is up nearly 100% over three years and 63.9% over five years. These moves hint at renewed optimism but may also reflect shifts in how investors perceive risk and reward in the broader market, especially given recent developments in global commodities and infrastructure investment.

With the last close at €32.94, your big question probably revolves around value. Is Voestalpine still a smart buy, or has the recent run left it looking expensive? Reviewed by six valuation checks, the company clocks in with a score of 2, meaning it is considered undervalued under just two key methods. That leaves some room for caution, but also the possibility of overlooked opportunity.

Next, we'll break down exactly how these different valuation approaches stack up for Voestalpine and why digging a little deeper could reveal the most meaningful insights of all.

Voestalpine scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Voestalpine Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s value, giving an estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. This approach is particularly useful for financially robust companies with predictable earnings, such as Voestalpine.

Currently, Voestalpine’s Free Cash Flow is €710.1 million. Analysts provide forecasts for the next five years, and Simply Wall St extends these projections through 2035 based on historical and industry trends. By 2030, the company’s Free Cash Flow is projected to reach €464.8 million, highlighting moderate expectations for growth in the coming years. All projections are stated in Euros, matching the company’s reporting currency.

Based on this model, Voestalpine’s intrinsic value is estimated at €49.05 per share compared to a current share price of €32.94. This implies the stock is trading at a 32.8% discount to its intrinsic value, suggesting room for upside.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Voestalpine.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Voestalpine is undervalued by 32.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Voestalpine Price vs Earnings (P/E)

The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a go-to metric for valuing profitable companies because it measures how much investors are willing to pay for a euro of earnings. The P/E is especially useful when evaluating established businesses like Voestalpine that generate consistent profits, as it ties valuation directly to bottom-line performance.

While a higher P/E can signal higher growth prospects or lower perceived risk, it might also reflect heightened expectations or a premium for industry leadership. Conversely, lower P/E ratios can sometimes indicate market caution or slower anticipated growth. What is considered a “normal” P/E depends on the company’s expected earnings growth, risk profile, and how it compares to its peers.

Voestalpine’s current P/E is 47.5x, which sits above the metals and mining industry average of 21.5x and the average among close peers at 45.9x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Voestalpine is 27.8x. Unlike basic peer or industry comparisons, the Fair Ratio factors in specifics like Voestalpine’s predicted earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, and business risks, making it a more tailored benchmark for fair value. This holistic approach moves beyond raw averages and offers a more nuanced view of where the stock should trade given its fundamentals.

Comparing the Fair Ratio of 27.8x to Voestalpine’s actual P/E of 47.5x, the stock is currently trading at a significant premium, suggesting it may be overvalued based on earnings.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Voestalpine Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own investment story—it connects your perspective on a company’s future (your forecasts for revenue, profit margins, and fair value) to the numbers behind the scenes. Narratives let you easily link Voestalpine’s business strategy, industry trends, and potential risks into a personalized financial forecast, then compare your fair value against the latest market price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are already using Narratives to share and shape their views. Narratives aren’t static—they get updated automatically when new news or earnings reports are released, keeping your valuation thinking fresh and relevant. For example, two investors might see Voestalpine very differently: one may believe its shift to decarbonization and high-tech metals will boost future profits and estimate a fair value of €40 per share, while another, more cautious due to global economic and trade risks, might see value closer to €21.5 per share. Narratives help you weigh both sides and decide for yourself if the current price is attractive, putting dynamic, story-driven investing within easy reach for everyone.

Do you think there's more to the story for Voestalpine? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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