Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Erste Group Bank AG (VIE:EBS) After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week, you might have seen that Erste Group Bank AG (VIE:EBS) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to €58.85 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €2.8b and statutory earnings per share of €1.82 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Erste Group Bank is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Erste Group Bank after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Erste Group Bank's 13 analysts is for revenues of €11.1b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 3.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 6.2% to €7.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €11.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.43 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Erste Group Bank

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €69.57, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Erste Group Bank analyst has a price target of €82.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €51.61. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Erste Group Bank shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Erste Group Bank's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 7 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Erste Group Bank's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Erste Group Bank. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Erste Group Bank. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Erste Group Bank analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Erste Group Bank's balance sheet, and whether we think Erste Group Bank is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.