Marathon Petroleum Toekomstige groei
Future criteriumcontroles 1/6
De omzet en winst van Marathon Petroleum zullen naar verwachting dalen met respectievelijk 1% en 1.2% per jaar. De winst per aandeel zal naar verwachting groeien met 7.2% per jaar. Het rendement op het eigen vermogen zal naar verwachting 21.1% in 3 jaar.
Belangrijke informatie
-1.2%
Groei van de winst
7.23%
Groei van de winst per aandeel
| Oil and Gas winstgroei | 10.7% |
| Inkomstengroei | -1.0% |
| Toekomstig rendement op eigen vermogen | 21.09% |
| Dekking van analisten | Good |
| Laatst bijgewerkt | 07 May 2026 |
Recente toekomstige groei-updates
Recent updates
Analyse-artikel • May 08
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish...Seeking Alpha • Apr 30
Marathon Petroleum: Earnings Next Week To Reflect Recent Tailwinds
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation is rated a Buy, trading at only 10x 2026 earnings with strong sector tailwinds and a history of market outperformance. MPC benefits from surging crack spreads, unique heavy crude refining capacity, and immediate windfall profits due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite a challenging 2025, MPC maintained high utilization, robust EBITDA per barrel, shareholder returns, and a strong balance sheet with $3.7B in cash. Analysts consistently underestimate MPC; upcoming earnings could see a 15–20% revenue boost, with capital allocation decisions key to future upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analyse-update • Apr 25
MPC: Oil Price Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns
The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has been revised higher by $10.57 to $247.18. Analysts point to updated fair value estimates, modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as well as a slightly richer future P/E multiple as key drivers for the change.Analyse-update • Apr 10
MPC: Higher Oil Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns
The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum increases to $236.61 from $216.17. Analysts attribute this change to adjustments in fair value assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, revised revenue growth and profit margin inputs, and a different future P/E outlook.
Nieuwe analyse • Apr 10
Refining And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Major Upside Over The Next Decade
Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables platform across the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analyse-update • Mar 27
MPC: Elevated Oil Assumptions And Labor Uncertainty Will Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Marathon Petroleum The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has shifted from about $202.50 to roughly $216.17. Analysts have cited updated oil price assumptions, recent Middle East related supply risk, and refiners' earnings estimates as key drivers behind their revised outlook.
Nieuwe analyse • Mar 27
Sour Crude Exposure And Midstream Assumptions Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook
Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables business concentrated in the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analyse-update • Mar 11
MPC: Refining Conditions Labor Talks And Buybacks Will Shape Future Outcomes
The analyst fair value estimate for Marathon Petroleum has edged up by about $3 to $202.50, reflecting recent price target revisions across the Street as analysts weigh slightly adjusted discount rate and P/E assumptions, along with their updated views on refining conditions into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions as they reassess refining fundamentals, crude assumptions, and where consensus sits for 2026.Analyse-update • Feb 24
MPC: Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Future Outcomes
Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Marathon Petroleum higher, with recent changes ranging from a $1 lift at the low end to a $28 increase at the high end. These moves reflect updated views on refining fundamentals, margins and longer term P/E assumptions.Analyse-update • Feb 08
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Margins Will Drive Balanced Future Outcomes
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Marathon Petroleum, supporting a modest increase in our fair value estimate from US$194.61 to about US$199.56. They cite updated commodity assumptions, mixed views on refining conditions into 2026, and revised expectations for earnings and future P/E multiples.Analyse-update • Jan 23
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Fundamentals Will Shape Balanced Future Upside
Narrative Update Our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate moves lower by about US$5 to US$194.61 per share, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth and margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple that align with recent analyst price target trims and cautious views on sector outperformance, even as some expect near term refining fundamentals to remain supportive. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum points to a mixed setup, with most analysts trimming or fine tuning price targets while keeping broadly balanced views on upside potential and execution risks.Analyse-update • Jan 07
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Execution Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update: Marathon Petroleum Analyst Price Target Shift The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum moves slightly lower to about US$200 from roughly US$201, as analysts fine tune their models around commodity assumptions, refining asset optimization, and the role of midstream investments and capital returns in the overall valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Marathon Petroleum cluster around refiners and integrated oil coverage, with analysts fine tuning targets and ratings as they refresh commodity and margin assumptions.Analyse-update • Dec 23
MPC: Capital Returns Will Drive Upside Amid Constructive Refining Tailwinds
Analysts have nudged our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate slightly lower to approximately $201 from about $201.33 per share, as a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer margin outlook more than offset incremental optimism around long term refining tailwinds, midstream value creation, and capital return that underpin a broadly higher Street price target range of roughly $189 to $220. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts broadly frame Marathon Petroleum as a top tier refiner with a favorable risk reward profile, pointing to resilient cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and supportive sector dynamics that justify price targets clustering near the low to mid $200s per share.Analyse-update • Dec 09
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Support Margins In A Tighter Market
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Marathon Petroleum slightly higher, with updated fair value estimates moving from about $199.94 to $201.33 per share. Modestly improved margin expectations and a still supportive, though finely balanced, refining backdrop underpin a more constructive long term outlook.Analyse-update • Nov 24
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Steady Margins Amid Ongoing Volatility
Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target has moved modestly higher to approximately $199.94 from $197.50, as analysts highlight stable refining margins, ongoing capital allocation discipline, and industry tailwinds in light of updated market and commodity forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from Street research highlight a mixed but generally constructive view on Marathon Petroleum, with analysts noting both structural strengths and emerging risks within the business and sector.Analyse-update • Nov 09
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Strength Will Balance Margin Volatility Ahead
Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target rose slightly from $196.11 to $197.50, as analysts cite ongoing capital discipline and midstream strength, despite soft spots in recent results. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on Marathon Petroleum reflect a mix of optimism and caution, as perspectives diverge on the company’s valuation and future prospects.Analyse-artikel • Nov 04
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.00
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 10th of December to $1.00...Analyse-update • Oct 26
Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Drive Outperformance Amid Market Volatility
Analysts have increased their average price target for Marathon Petroleum from $192.17 to $196.11. This change is attributed to resilient refining margins, ongoing sector tailwinds, and the company's strong position in capital returns amid a volatile oil market environment.Analyse-update • Oct 12
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has increased by $3 to $192. Analysts cite sector tailwinds, resilient refining margins, and continued strength in global product markets for their updated outlook.Analyse-update • Sep 28
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
Marathon Petroleum's fair value estimate has risen to $189.17 as analysts anticipate continued robust refining margins driven by persistent supply tightness, strong margin capture, and positive sector tailwinds, though some caution over valuation following recent outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite robust refining margins and strong margin capture, with recent quarters outperforming expectations and margin strength persisting despite calls for a decline.Analyse-artikel • Sep 22
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Price In Tune With Earnings
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x might make it look like a...Analyse-update • Sep 13
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
Analysts have raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $183.50, citing persistent refining margin strength, resilient earnings, and optimism about long-term supply/demand balances—though concerns over valuation and potential crack spread headwinds are tempering further upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets due to persistent refining margin strength and tighter-than-expected global supply/demand balances, especially regarding distillate products, with outlooks for 2026 and beyond increasingly supportive.Analyse-artikel • Aug 08
Results: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
NYSE:MPC 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Marathon Petroleum's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Analyse-artikel • May 13
Investors Appear Satisfied With Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Prospects As Shares Rocket 28%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...Seeking Alpha • Mar 26
Marathon Petroleum: Unique Financial Position (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Marathon generates an ex-ordinary amount of cash. In a short period of time, the company could pay off its debt and repurchase a large portion of the stock to leave a very large amount of cash unused. Its partner, MPLX, now pays for the dividend and basic capital, leaving the balance of the cash free for use elsewhere. In a three to five-year period, the company might generate a very large amount of excess cash for what now appears headed toward paying extraordinary high dividends. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 04
Marathon Petroleum: Further Upside Likely After A Better-Than-Feared Q4
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has faced challenges due to tighter crack spreads, but its MLP, MPLX, has performed well, contributing to a solid earnings report and supporting shares. MPC's refining operations are undervalued at 3.2x, 2024 EBITDA, with aggressive share repurchases also increasing the per-share value of its MPLX stake. Despite a tough refining environment, MPC's secure dividend and flexible buyback strategy offer a minimum 3% share count reduction and strong shareholder returns. Long-term demand for gasoline and limited refinery supply support MPC's potential for upside, making it a strong buy for patient investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 24
Marathon Petroleum: Low Valuation And MPLX Ownership Make It A Buy
Summary Marathon Petroleum is a Buy due to its 64% ownership in MPLX. MPC's market cap is $43 billion, with its MPLX stake valued at $31 billion, leaving refining assets valued at just $12 billion. Continued demand growth along with refinery closures could improve crack spreads in 2025. Sentiment and seasonality for refiners are at a low, which often is a good time to buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 06
Marathon Petroleum: Shares Are Attractive Despite Muted Q3 Results
Summary Marathon Petroleum shares have dropped significantly, but Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the stock by over 3% and reinforcing my bullish stance. The Company's refining operations' implied equity value has sharply declined, creating a compelling investment opportunity, especially with the company's strong capital return capacity and share repurchases. Despite cyclical challenges, US product demand remains firm, and global policy easing should stabilize economic activity, supporting a recovery in crack spreads. With MPLX providing a valuation floor and MPC's aggressive share count reduction, I see over 40% upside, making MPC a top value opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 20
Framing Marathon Petroleum Financials With Unexpected Weak Spreads (Knees)
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported stellar Q2 results, but Gulf Coast crack spreads collapsed in September, impacting short-term performance. MPLX's $2.2 billion annualized cash flow significantly supports Marathon's dividends and capital, ensuring generous returns for MPLX investors. Despite short-term challenges, Marathon's long-term strategy focuses on strong mid-cycle margins, significant capital returns, and organic growth opportunities. Management remains committed to share buybacks and sustainable dividend growth, leveraging MPLX's distribution to cover CapEx and dividends, reinforcing Marathon's resilience. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 26
Marathon Petroleum: At An Inflection Point, Downgraded To Hold
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has experienced weaker refining margins in 2024. Its extraordinary share buybacks have recently had the effect of supporting the share price but chipping away at market capitalization. This $54.1 billion market cap company is also a 63.4% owner of $45.8 billion mid-streamer MPLX. Muted demand and higher-cost Canadian crude is offset somewhat by flat oil feedstock prices and the generous dividend Marathon Petroleum receives as majority owner of MPLX. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 16
Marathon Petroleum Corporation: A Solid Oil Refiner Despite Sector Weakness
Summary Marathon Petroleum benefits from geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices but faces political risks and declining margins due to current oil price weakness. Despite strong financials and significant share buybacks, Marathon Oil's stock price is expected to decline amid falling oil prices and macroeconomic challenges. Marathon Petroleum has outperformed peers due to efficient operations and substantial share buybacks, reducing share count by nearly 50% in three years. The stock is fairly valued with a clean balance sheet, but it's prudent to wait for oil prices and refining margins to improve before buying. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaWinst- en omzetgroeiprognoses
| Datum | Inkomsten | Inkomsten | Vrije kasstroom | Geldmiddelen uit operationele activiteiten | Gem. Aantal analisten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 139,449 | 6,019 | 8,602 | 11,211 | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 135,290 | 6,189 | 8,212 | 11,677 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 143,654 | 8,652 | 9,477 | 12,715 | 10 |
| 3/31/2026 | 135,946 | 4,628 | 5,702 | 9,438 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 133,174 | 4,043 | 4,767 | 8,253 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 133,581 | 2,879 | 4,276 | 7,391 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 133,862 | 2,133 | 3,647 | 6,466 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 137,969 | 2,432 | 4,458 | 7,069 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 139,336 | 3,442 | 6,132 | 8,665 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 142,670 | 4,521 | 5,326 | 7,581 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 148,772 | 7,177 | 8,826 | 10,850 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 147,394 | 7,888 | 9,574 | 11,592 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 149,348 | 9,672 | 12,227 | 14,117 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 152,729 | 11,470 | 15,292 | 17,376 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 157,477 | 12,666 | 12,572 | 14,937 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 174,917 | 16,311 | 15,523 | 17,905 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 178,236 | 14,436 | 13,941 | 16,361 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 173,756 | 11,962 | 13,478 | 15,653 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 160,241 | 8,181 | 10,140 | 11,991 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 135,923 | 2,609 | 4,764 | 6,419 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 120,451 | 1,288 | 2,896 | 4,360 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 103,033 | 475 | 574 | 2,014 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 87,972 | -1,475 | 2,786 | 4,483 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 70,457 | -1,956 | 1,501 | 3,641 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 69,896 | -11,032 | -368 | 2,419 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 79,918 | -10,734 | -179 | 3,500 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 90,070 | -8,636 | 879 | 4,966 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 105,214 | -7,715 | 2,530 | 7,050 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 111,275 | 1,830 | N/A | 9,441 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 115,646 | 2,523 | N/A | 9,759 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 111,099 | 2,419 | N/A | 8,154 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 106,098 | 2,735 | N/A | 7,918 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 86,284 | 2,106 | N/A | 6,158 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 85,449 | 3,843 | N/A | 6,176 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 81,716 | 4,008 | N/A | 6,900 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 77,618 | 3,437 | N/A | 5,367 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 75,053 | 3,430 | N/A | 6,612 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 69,251 | 1,642 | N/A | 4,860 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 64,702 | 885 | N/A | 3,359 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 61,385 | 1,202 | N/A | 4,773 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 63,517 | 1,173 | N/A | 4,017 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 54,372 | 1,132 | N/A | 3,810 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 56,364 | 1,935 | N/A | 4,474 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 60,040 | 1,959 | N/A | 3,201 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 64,471 | 2,848 | N/A | 4,073 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 71,111 | 3,459 | N/A | 3,641 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 78,194 | 3,182 | N/A | 3,650 | N/A |
Toekomstige groeivoorspellingen analisten
Verdiensten versus spaarpercentage: De winst van MPC zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1.2% per jaar).
Winst versus markt: De winst van MPC zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1.2% per jaar).
Hoge groeiwinsten: De winst van MPC zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen.
Omzet versus markt: De omzet van MPC zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1% per jaar).
Hoge groei-inkomsten: De omzet van MPC zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1% per jaar).
Groeiprognoses winst per aandeel
Toekomstig rendement op eigen vermogen
Toekomstige ROE: Het rendement op eigen vermogen MPC zal naar verwachting over 3 jaar hoog zijn ( 21.1 %)
Ontdek groeibedrijven
Bedrijfsanalyse en status van financiële gegevens
| Gegevens | Laatst bijgewerkt (UTC-tijd) |
|---|---|
| Bedrijfsanalyse | 2026/05/07 07:55 |
| Aandelenkoers aan het einde van de dag | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Inkomsten | 2026/03/31 |
| Jaarlijkse inkomsten | 2025/12/31 |
Gegevensbronnen
De gegevens die gebruikt zijn in onze bedrijfsanalyse zijn afkomstig van S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. De volgende gegevens worden gebruikt in ons analysemodel om dit rapport te genereren. De gegevens zijn genormaliseerd, waardoor er een vertraging kan optreden voordat de bron beschikbaar is.
| Pakket | Gegevens | Tijdframe | Voorbeeld Amerikaanse bron * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financiële gegevens bedrijf | 10 jaar |
| |
| Consensus schattingen analisten | +3 jaar |
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| Marktprijzen | 30 jaar |
| |
| Eigendom | 10 jaar |
| |
| Beheer | 10 jaar |
| |
| Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen | 10 jaar |
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* Voorbeeld voor effecten uit de VS, voor niet-Amerikaanse effecten worden gelijkwaardige formulieren en bronnen gebruikt.
Tenzij anders vermeld zijn alle financiële gegevens gebaseerd op een jaarperiode, maar worden ze elk kwartaal bijgewerkt. Dit staat bekend als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) of Last Twelve Month (LTM) gegevens. Meer informatie.
Analysemodel en Snowflake
Details van het analysemodel dat is gebruikt om dit rapport te genereren zijn beschikbaar op onze Github-pagina. We hebben ook handleidingen over hoe je onze rapporten kunt gebruiken en tutorials op YouTube.
Leer meer over het team van wereldklasse dat het Simply Wall St-analysemodel heeft ontworpen en gebouwd.
Industrie en sector
Onze industrie- en sectormetrics worden elke 6 uur berekend door Simply Wall St, details van ons proces zijn beschikbaar op Github.
Bronnen van analisten
Marathon Petroleum Corporation wordt gevolgd door 31 analisten. 15 van deze analisten hebben de schattingen van de omzet of winst ingediend die zijn gebruikt als input voor ons rapport. Inzendingen van analisten worden de hele dag door bijgewerkt.
| Analist | Instelling |
|---|---|
| Theresa Chen | Barclays |
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Jean Ann Salisbury | BofA Global Research |