Update shared on28 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 3.09%Marathon Petroleum's fair value estimate has risen to $189.17 as analysts anticipate continued robust refining margins driven by persistent supply tightness, strong margin capture, and positive sector tailwinds, though some caution over valuation following recent outperformance.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite robust refining margins and strong margin capture, with recent quarters outperforming expectations and margin strength persisting despite calls for a decline.
- Global supply/demand dynamics remain tight, with distillate tightness expected to persist into winter and projections of even tighter markets into 2026-2027 supporting margin resilience.
- The influx of international crude and fuel oil, particularly from Russia, is seen as a positive sector tailwind for U.S. refiners, boosting the outlook for companies like Marathon Petroleum.
- Multiple updates highlight positive earnings revisions, especially for the second half of 2025, as well as strong demand and recovering refining economics despite near-term volatility risks.
- Bearish analysts note valuation concerns following recent stock outperformance, sector premium trading, and medium-term downside risk to crack spreads, prompting at least one downgrade based on stretched valuations.
What's in the News
- Five Point is in discussions to sell Northwind Midstream, valued at approximately $2.3 billion, to Marathon Petroleum’s MPLX unit (Bloomberg).
- Marathon Petroleum repurchased 4.76 million shares (1.54% of shares outstanding) for $692.09 million during Q2 2025, bringing total buybacks since 2017 to 91.14% of shares for $44.0 billion.
- Marathon Petroleum was removed from the Russell Top 200 Value Benchmark index as of June 30, 2025.
- Simultaneously, the company was added to the Russell Midcap Value Benchmark index effective June 30, 2025.
- The company’s ongoing capital return strategy remains a significant driver of shareholder value amid recent index reclassifications (Key Developments, Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Marathon Petroleum
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $183.50 to $189.17.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Marathon Petroleum has significantly risen from -2.6% per annum to -1.1% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Marathon Petroleum has fallen slightly from 14.16x to 13.81x.
Disclaimer
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