Update shared on13 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.69%Analysts have raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $183.50, citing persistent refining margin strength, resilient earnings, and optimism about long-term supply/demand balances—though concerns over valuation and potential crack spread headwinds are tempering further upside.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts are raising price targets due to persistent refining margin strength and tighter-than-expected global supply/demand balances, especially regarding distillate products, with outlooks for 2026 and beyond increasingly supportive.
- Q2 earnings and margin capture have consistently surprised to the upside despite sector headwinds and seasonal concerns; strong performance in the early part of Q3 further reinforces positive sentiment.
- Valuation concerns are growing after recent material share outperformance, leading some bearish analysts to downgrade or temper ratings, citing limited near-term upside.
- The sector's premium valuation and risk of downside in crack spreads in the medium term temper bullish forecasts, as some analysts see robust current margins but potential headwinds ahead.
- Marathon's stock performance reflects optimism about California margin durability, midstream efficiency, and long-cycle growth opportunities, but current valuation is seen as fairly reflecting these positives.
What's in the News
- Marathon Petroleum’s affiliate MPLX is reportedly in talks to acquire Northwind Midstream from Five Point for about $2.3 billion (Bloomberg).
- The company repurchased 4.76 million shares for $692.09 million between April and June 2025, bringing total buybacks to 438.06 million shares (91.14% of the program) for $44.01 billion since 2017 (Key Developments).
- Marathon Petroleum was dropped from the Russell Top 200 Index and Russell Top 200 Value Index as of June 28, 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company was added to the Russell Midcap Index and Russell Midcap Value Index on June 28, 2025, and to the Russell Midcap Value Benchmark on June 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
- Marathon Petroleum was dropped from the Russell Top 200 Value Benchmark as of June 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Marathon Petroleum
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $180.44 to $183.50.
- The Future P/E for Marathon Petroleum remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 13.91x to 14.16x.
- The Discount Rate for Marathon Petroleum remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.70% to 7.72%.
Disclaimer
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