Would Shareholders Who Purchased Donegal Group's (NASDAQ:DGIC.B) Stock Year Be Happy With The Share price Today?

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by Donegal Group Inc. (NASDAQ:DGIC.B) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 17%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 15%. Looking at the longer term, the stock is down 14% over three years. On top of that, the share price is down 9.8% in the last week.

View our latest analysis for Donegal Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Even though the Donegal Group share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

We don't see any weakness in the Donegal Group's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling Donegal Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Donegal Group the TSR over the last year was -13%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Donegal Group shareholders took a loss of 13%, including dividends. In contrast the market gained about 15%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. The three-year loss of 1.0% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Donegal Group you should be aware of.

But note: Donegal Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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