First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE:FCF), operating in the financial services industry based in United States, led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on First Commonwealth Financial’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What’s the opportunity in First Commonwealth Financial?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 5.48% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy First Commonwealth Financial today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $8.49, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because First Commonwealth Financial’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
Can we expect growth from First Commonwealth Financial?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of First Commonwealth Financial, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the upcoming, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? FCF seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on FCF for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on FCF should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on First Commonwealth Financial. You can find everything you need to know about First Commonwealth Financial in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in First Commonwealth Financial, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.