Is Dollarama’s (TSE:DOL) Share Price Gain Of 225% Well Earned?

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don’t use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. One great example is Dollarama Inc. (TSE:DOL) which saw its share price drive 225% higher over five years. It’s also good to see the share price up 18% over the last quarter.

Check out our latest analysis for Dollarama

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Dollarama achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 23% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 27% per year. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn’t morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

TSX:DOL Past and Future Earnings, August 19th 2019
TSX:DOL Past and Future Earnings, August 19th 2019

It’s probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Dollarama’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Dollarama’s TSR for the last 5 years was 232%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It’s good to see that Dollarama has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 4.8% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 27% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.