To the annoyance of some shareholders, Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) shares are down a considerable 30% in the last month. Indeed the recent decline has arguably caused some bitterness for shareholders who have held through the 44% drop over twelve months.
All else being equal, a share price drop should make a stock more attractive to potential investors. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). Investors have optimistic expectations of companies with higher P/E ratios, compared to companies with lower P/E ratios.
Does Cleveland-Cliffs Have A Relatively High Or Low P/E For Its Industry?
We can tell from its P/E ratio of 5.13 that sentiment around Cleveland-Cliffs isn’t particularly high. The image below shows that Cleveland-Cliffs has a lower P/E than the average (9.9) P/E for companies in the metals and mining industry.
This suggests that market participants think Cleveland-Cliffs will underperform other companies in its industry. Many investors like to buy stocks when the market is pessimistic about their prospects. It is arguably worth checking if insiders are buying shares, because that might imply they believe the stock is undervalued.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
Generally speaking the rate of earnings growth has a profound impact on a company’s P/E multiple. When earnings grow, the ‘E’ increases, over time. Therefore, even if you pay a high multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become lower in the future. So while a stock may look expensive based on past earnings, it could be cheap based on future earnings.
Cleveland-Cliffs saw earnings per share decrease by 70% last year. But over the longer term (3 years), earnings per share have increased by 29%. And it has shrunk its earnings per share by 32% per year over the last five years. This might lead to muted expectations.
Remember: P/E Ratios Don’t Consider The Balance Sheet
Don’t forget that the P/E ratio considers market capitalization. In other words, it does not consider any debt or cash that the company may have on the balance sheet. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.
Spending on growth might be good or bad a few years later, but the point is that the P/E ratio does not account for the option (or lack thereof).
How Does Cleveland-Cliffs’s Debt Impact Its P/E Ratio?
Cleveland-Cliffs has net debt worth a very significant 119% of its market capitalization. This is a relatively high level of debt, so the stock probably deserves a relatively low P/E ratio. Keep that in mind when comparing it to other companies.
The Bottom Line On Cleveland-Cliffs’s P/E Ratio
Cleveland-Cliffs’s P/E is 5.1 which is below average (16.6) in the US market. When you consider that the company has significant debt, and didn’t grow EPS last year, it isn’t surprising that the market has muted expectations. Given Cleveland-Cliffs’s P/E ratio has declined from 7.4 to 5.1 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is more worried about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer invest in growth, this stock apparently offers limited promise, but the deep value investors may find the pessimism around this stock enticing.
When the market is wrong about a stock, it gives savvy investors an opportunity. As value investor Benjamin Graham famously said, ‘In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. So this free visual report on analyst forecasts could hold the key to an excellent investment decision.
But note: Cleveland-Cliffs may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20).
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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