Stock Analysis

3 ASX Stocks Estimated To Be Trading Up To 38% Below Intrinsic Value

As the Australian market remains relatively flat, hovering around the 8,542-point mark, and with Treasurer Jim Chalmers advocating for comprehensive tax reforms, investors are keenly observing sectors like IT and Industrials that have shown resilience. In this environment of cautious optimism and sector-specific movements, identifying stocks trading below their intrinsic value can present opportunities for investors seeking potential long-term gains.

Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In Australia

NameCurrent PriceFair Value (Est)Discount (Est)
Tasmea (ASX:TEA)A$3.20A$6.0447%
Ridley (ASX:RIC)A$2.86A$5.6449.3%
Praemium (ASX:PPS)A$0.63A$1.1645.6%
Polymetals Resources (ASX:POL)A$0.885A$1.5542.9%
PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH)A$1.195A$2.0341.1%
Nanosonics (ASX:NAN)A$4.18A$6.9439.8%
Infomedia (ASX:IFM)A$1.155A$1.9841.5%
Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX)A$0.285A$0.4739.3%
DroneShield (ASX:DRO)A$1.845A$3.4145.9%
Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC)A$19.06A$33.8843.7%

Click here to see the full list of 34 stocks from our Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener.

Let's review some notable picks from our screened stocks.

Mader Group (ASX:MAD)

Overview: Mader Group Limited is a contracting company that offers specialist technical services in the mining, energy, and industrial sectors both in Australia and internationally, with a market cap of A$1.22 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue is primarily derived from its Staffing & Outsourcing Services segment, which generated A$811.54 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 26.5%

Mader Group is trading at A$6.06, significantly below its estimated fair value of A$8.25, indicating it may be undervalued based on cash flows. Despite forecasted revenue growth of 11.1% per year being slower than 20%, it surpasses the Australian market average of 5.6%. Earnings are expected to grow by 13.48% annually, outpacing the market's 11.6%. With a high future return on equity forecasted at 24.1%, Mader presents strong investment potential amidst current undervaluation.

ASX:MAD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:MAD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)

Overview: Nick Scali Limited, with a market cap of A$1.59 billion, is involved in the sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories across Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand.

Operations: The company's revenue primarily comes from its furniture retailing segment, generating A$492.63 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 33.6%

Nick Scali, trading at A$18.56, is considerably below its estimated fair value of A$27.93, highlighting potential undervaluation based on cash flows. Its revenue growth forecast of 8.4% annually exceeds the Australian market average of 5.6%, while earnings are expected to rise by 12.42% per year, surpassing the market's 11.6%. The company anticipates a high future return on equity at 28.3%. Recent CFO transition plans ensure continued strategic financial leadership amidst expansion efforts.

ASX:NCK Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:NCK Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR)

Overview: Pantoro Gold Limited, with a market cap of A$1.34 billion, is involved in gold mining, processing, and exploration activities in Western Australia.

Operations: The company generates revenue from its Norseman Gold Project, amounting to A$289.11 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 38%

Pantoro Gold, currently trading at A$3.4, is significantly undervalued compared to its fair value estimate of A$5.48. With earnings projected to grow 57.28% annually and anticipated profitability within three years, it presents a compelling growth story. The company's revenue growth forecast of 19.5% per year surpasses the Australian market average of 5.6%. Recent drilling results at the OK Underground Mine support potential ore reserve upgrades, enhancing future cash flow prospects amid strategic expansion efforts.

ASX:PNR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:PNR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

Make It Happen

  • Embark on your investment journey to our 34 Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows selection here.
  • Got skin in the game with these stocks? Elevate how you manage them by using Simply Wall St's portfolio, where intuitive tools await to help optimize your investment outcomes.
  • Elevate your portfolio with Simply Wall St, the ultimate app for investors seeking global market coverage.

Contemplating Other Strategies?

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The New Payments ETF Is Live on NASDAQ:

Money is moving to real-time rails, and a newly listed ETF now gives investors direct exposure. Fast settlement. Institutional custody. Simple access.

Explore how this launch could reshape portfolios

Sponsored Content

New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place

We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.

• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks

Try a Demo Portfolio for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

About ASX:MAD

Mader Group

A contracting company, provides specialist technical services in the mining, energy, and industrial sectors in Australia, North America, and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.

Weekly Picks

AL
RKLB logo
AlexLovell on Rocket Lab ·

Early mover in a fast growing industry. Likely to experience share price volatility as they scale

Fair Value:US$16.25334.0% overvalued
40 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
14 users have liked this narrative
AG
Agricola
EXN logo
Agricola on Excellon Resources ·

A case for CA$31.80 (undiluted), aka 8,616% upside from CA$0.37 (an 86 bagger!).

Fair Value:CA$31.898.5% undervalued
47 users have followed this narrative
7 users have commented on this narrative
15 users have liked this narrative
FU
FundamentallySarcastic
CCP logo
FundamentallySarcastic on Credit Corp Group ·

Moderation and Stabilisation: HOLD: Fair Price based on a 4-year Cycle is $12.08

Fair Value:AU$12.6412.1% overvalued
7 users have followed this narrative
1 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Updated Narratives

YI
ABNB logo
yiannisz on Airbnb ·

Airbnb Stock: Platform Growth in a World of Saturation and Scrutiny

Fair Value:US$159.715.3% undervalued
1 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
YI
ADBE logo
yiannisz on Adobe ·

Adobe Stock: AI-Fueled ARR Growth Pushes Guidance Higher, But Cost Pressures Loom

Fair Value:US$391.259.0% undervalued
8 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
2 users have liked this narrative
YI
TRI logo
yiannisz on Thomson Reuters ·

Thomson Reuters Stock: When Legal Intelligence Becomes Mission-Critical Infrastructure

Fair Value:CA$201.979.9% undervalued
1 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Popular Narratives

RO
RockeTeller
SCZ logo
RockeTeller on Santacruz Silver Mining ·

Crazy Undervalued 42 Baggers Silver Play (Active & Running Mine)

Fair Value:CA$8686.4% undervalued
82 users have followed this narrative
8 users have commented on this narrative
23 users have liked this narrative
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
NVDA logo
AnalystConsensusTarget on NVIDIA ·

NVDA: Expanding AI Demand Will Drive Major Data Center Investments Through 2026

Fair Value:US$250.3927.7% undervalued
979 users have followed this narrative
6 users have commented on this narrative
26 users have liked this narrative
RO
RobertoAllende
NVDA logo
RobertoAllende on NVIDIA ·

The AI Infrastructure Giant Grows Into Its Valuation

Fair Value:US$345.0747.5% undervalued
43 users have followed this narrative
28 users have commented on this narrative
24 users have liked this narrative