Last Update 05 Mar 26

Fair value Increased 4.68%

CDE: Higher Gold Silver Prices And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update

The analyst price target for Coeur Mining has shifted higher, with our fair value estimate moving from $25.93 to $27.14. Analysts point to mixed but solid Q4 results, initial 2026 guidance that aligns with expectations, and the impact of higher gold and silver prices on the outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Coeur Mining reflects a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets on the back of recent results and commodity price moves, while others are turning more cautious after the latest Q4 update.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts raised price targets into the high US$20s, suggesting they see room for upside from current levels based on their updated models.
Q4 is described as another strong or solid operational quarter, even though results were mixed versus estimates, which supports confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its plan.
Initial 2026 guidance is characterized as largely in line with expectations, giving bullish analysts comfort that management’s outlook fits with their existing assumptions rather than forcing major estimate revisions.
Higher gold and silver prices since prior updates are cited as a supportive factor for earnings power and, in turn, for higher fair value assumptions in bullish models.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight Q4 as a mixed report, which limits conviction that recent operational performance can consistently support higher valuation multiples.
A downgrade to a neutral stance with a price target around the mid US$20s suggests some see only modest upside from here, making the risk or reward profile less compelling in their view.
Comments about limited upside to revised targets indicate concern that much of the benefit from the current gold and silver price backdrop may already be reflected in the stock.
The small reduction in one firm’s price target, even while remaining close to prior levels, signals that some are trimming expectations rather than expanding them, especially after reviewing the mixed Q4 report.

What's in the News

New 2026 production guidance calls for total gold output of 390,000 oz to 460,000 oz and total silver output of 18,200,000 oz to 21,300,000 oz, providing a clearer view of the company’s medium term operating plans (Corporate guidance).
Reported Q4 2025 gold production of 112,429 oz compared with 87,149 oz a year earlier, and silver production of 4.7 million oz compared with 3.2 million oz, with full year 2025 gold production of 419,046 oz and silver production of 17.9 million oz compared with 341,582 oz and 11.4 million oz a year earlier (Operating results announcement).
Stockholders approved an amendment to the Certificate of Incorporation to increase authorized common shares from 900,000,000 to 1,300,000,000 at a special meeting on January 27, 2026. This expands the company’s capacity to issue new equity (Bylaw change and shareholder approval).
The same special meeting included a proposal to approve issuing Coeur common stock to New Gold shareholders in connection with an arrangement. This signals ongoing corporate activity that could affect the company’s capital structure and asset mix (Special shareholders meeting).
Extensive exploration updates at the Palmarejo complex in Mexico highlight ongoing drilling at Hidalgo Corridor, Independencia Sur, San Miguel, La Unión and the Camuchín trend. These programs target resource growth, potential mine life extension and new discoveries across a large land package (Product related announcements).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: our estimate has risen slightly from $25.93 to $27.14 per share, a modest upward adjustment.
Discount Rate: the rate used to discount future cash flows has edged higher from 8.14% to 8.25%, a small increase in the required return assumption.
Revenue Growth: the assumed long term revenue growth rate has been reduced from 44.36% to 36.79%, indicating a lower growth outlook in the model.
Net Profit Margin: the projected profit margin has moved higher from 38.05% to 42.11%, implying a more efficient earnings profile in the updated assumptions.
Future P/E: the forward P/E multiple has shifted down from 10.93x to 10.01x, reflecting a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Rising industrial and investor demand for silver and gold, along with operational improvements, position the company for strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
Exploration and asset integration efforts are set to extend mine life and underpin stable long-term production.
Greater regulatory, operational, and financial risks may constrain growth, pressure margins, and jeopardize long-term profitability and cash flow stability.

Catalysts

About Coeur Mining

Operates as a gold and silver producer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is set to benefit from anticipated sustained demand growth for silver, underpinning future topline revenue expansion, as global electrification and clean energy adoption drive higher usage of silver in solar panels, batteries, and EVs.
Persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to bolster investor demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, which could lead to higher realized prices and expanded net margins for Coeur.
The successful ramp-up and integration of the Rochester expansion and Las Chispas asset are driving significant increases in silver and gold production, positioning Coeur for robust revenue and earnings growth in the near to medium term.
Strengthened operational efficiencies-reflected in declining cost applicable to sales per ounce and process improvements at key mines-are improving operating leverage and could further support margin expansion and cash generation.
Aggressive brownfield exploration and land package expansion at existing sites are likely to extend mine life and expand reserves, supporting sustained long-term production and reducing future earnings volatility.

Coeur Mining Earnings and Revenue Growth

Coeur Mining Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Coeur Mining's revenue will grow by 12.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.1% today to 32.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $676.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.69) by about September 2028, up from $190.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.1 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $485 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 47.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 22.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.37%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Coeur Mining Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Expectations for higher regulatory and permitting hurdles, especially highlighted by the multi-year Silvertip development process and emphasis on not cutting corners, may extend lead times for new asset development and expansion, potentially delaying growth projects and revenue realization.
The company's reliance on existing reserves and need for ongoing infill and expansion drilling to maintain or extend mine life, especially at Las Chispas and other key assets, presents a risk of production declines should exploration fail to replace depletion, which could negatively impact long-term revenue and earnings stability.
Exposure to currency fluctuations (e.g., significant impact of the strong Mexican peso on costs and taxation) introduces cost volatility and could erode net margins if adverse foreign exchange moves persist.
Coeur's high capital intensity, as seen in substantial investments at Rochester and Las Chispas as well as legacy acquisition-related amortization and deferred tax liabilities, may pressure cash flows and lead to higher non-cash expenses, reducing reported net income over time.
Regional and jurisdictional risks, including potential resource nationalism, changing tax regimes, and environmental permitting delays in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, could increase operating costs, cause project delays, or disrupt production, all of which would impact long-term profitability and cash flow.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $13.083 for Coeur Mining based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $14.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $12.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.1 billion, earnings will come to $676.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
Given the current share price of $13.97, the analyst price target of $13.08 is 6.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CDE: Expanded Exploration And Production Will Drive Future Share Performance