Last Update 18 Jun 26

Fair value Decreased 1.01%

CDE: Index Inclusion And Buyback Program Will Support Future Stock Rerating

Analysts reduced their price target for Coeur Mining stock slightly to about $27.27 from $27.55, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples following recent research updates across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Coeur Mining highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms updating ratings and targets as they reassess production plans, free cash flow potential and appropriate P/E multiples for the stock.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to the recent resumption of positive coverage and various upgrades as a sign that Coeur Mining is increasingly viewed as better positioned for execution on its growth plans.
Expectations for consolidated production to surpass 1 million gold equivalent ounces this year are seen as a key pillar supporting current valuation frameworks and potential future re-rating if execution stays on track.
References to strong free cash flow potential at spot prices suggest that, under current commodity assumptions, Coeur Mining could generate cash that supports investment, balance sheet flexibility and, in some models, higher justified P/E multiples.
The clustering of fresh Outperform and Buy ratings indicates that some on the Street see recent acquisitions and expansions as additive to long term growth, rather than as a drag on returns.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, including those moving to Hold, underline that higher production targets and expansion plans also increase execution risk. This can constrain how much investors are willing to pay on a P/E basis until results are clearer.
Recent reductions in price targets, even from firms that remain constructive, show that there is ongoing debate about the right valuation for Coeur Mining given project timing, cost assumptions and sensitivity to spot prices.
The presence of both upgrades and downgrades in a short period signals that the risk and reward balance is finely tuned, with some viewing the stock as already pricing in a significant portion of expected growth.
Cautious views often focus on the possibility that if free cash flow or production come in below current expectations, the stock could face pressure as models are revised and target multiples are adjusted lower.

What’s in the News for Coeur Mining

Completed an all stock acquisition of New Gold that, together with the integration of Las Chispas / SilverCrest, positions Coeur Mining as a leading North American precious metals producer with seven operating mines and consolidated production guidance aiming toward more than 1 million gold equivalent ounces in 2026. Source: Company and analyst reports, first published May 30, 2026
Announced record Q1 2026 results, with adjusted EBITDA and revenue reported at all time highs, alongside updated 2026 production guidance of 680,000 to 815,000 ounces of gold, 18.7 million to 21.9 million ounces of silver and 50 million to 65 million pounds of copper. Source: Company guidance and operating results
Authorized a US$750 million share repurchase program running through March 19, 2029 and initiated a semiannual dividend of US$0.02 per share, with the first half 2026 dividend scheduled for payment on June 10, 2026. Source: Buyback and dividend announcements
Set to join the S&P MidCap 400 Index effective June 22, 2026, a move that some investors expect could affect trading liquidity and institutional ownership of Coeur Mining stock. Source: Index inclusion announcements, first published June 8, 2026
Secured a US$1b revolving credit facility intended to fund growth projects and exploration, while at least one firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, shifted its rating on Coeur Mining to Hold and trimmed its price target after Q1 results it characterized as a modest negative. Source: Financing and analyst rating updates

Valuation Changes for Coeur Mining

Fair Value: Trimmed slightly from $27.55 to about $27.27 per share. This reflects updated modeling assumptions for Coeur Mining stock.
Discount Rate: Adjusted marginally higher from 8.61% to about 8.62%, implying a slightly higher required return in the valuation work.
Revenue Growth: Reduced significantly in the model, from about 42.6% to roughly 25.9%. This indicates more conservative expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Revised lower from about 48.8% to roughly 32.7%, pointing to a more cautious stance on future profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Increased meaningfully from about 12.3x to roughly 26.5x. This signals a higher assumed valuation multiple applied to Coeur Mining’s projected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Rising industrial and investor demand for silver and gold, along with operational improvements, position the company for strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
Exploration and asset integration efforts are set to extend mine life and underpin stable long-term production.
Greater regulatory, operational, and financial risks may constrain growth, pressure margins, and jeopardize long-term profitability and cash flow stability.

Catalysts

About Coeur Mining

Operates as a gold and silver producer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is set to benefit from anticipated sustained demand growth for silver, underpinning future topline revenue expansion, as global electrification and clean energy adoption drive higher usage of silver in solar panels, batteries, and EVs.
Persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to bolster investor demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, which could lead to higher realized prices and expanded net margins for Coeur.
The successful ramp-up and integration of the Rochester expansion and Las Chispas asset are driving significant increases in silver and gold production, positioning Coeur for robust revenue and earnings growth in the near to medium term.
Strengthened operational efficiencies-reflected in declining cost applicable to sales per ounce and process improvements at key mines-are improving operating leverage and could further support margin expansion and cash generation.
Aggressive brownfield exploration and land package expansion at existing sites are likely to extend mine life and expand reserves, supporting sustained long-term production and reducing future earnings volatility.

Coeur Mining Earnings and Revenue Growth

Coeur Mining Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Coeur Mining's revenue will grow by 25.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 31.1% today to 32.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.7 billion (and earnings per share of $1.55) by about June 2029, up from $799.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $2.5 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.5x on those 2029 earnings, up from 22.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 18.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.62%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Expectations for higher regulatory and permitting hurdles, especially highlighted by the multi-year Silvertip development process and emphasis on not cutting corners, may extend lead times for new asset development and expansion, potentially delaying growth projects and revenue realization.
The company's reliance on existing reserves and need for ongoing infill and expansion drilling to maintain or extend mine life, especially at Las Chispas and other key assets, presents a risk of production declines should exploration fail to replace depletion, which could negatively impact long-term revenue and earnings stability.
Exposure to currency fluctuations (e.g., significant impact of the strong Mexican peso on costs and taxation) introduces cost volatility and could erode net margins if adverse foreign exchange moves persist.
Coeur's high capital intensity, as seen in substantial investments at Rochester and Las Chispas as well as legacy acquisition-related amortization and deferred tax liabilities, may pressure cash flows and lead to higher non-cash expenses, reducing reported net income over time.
Regional and jurisdictional risks, including potential resource nationalism, changing tax regimes, and environmental permitting delays in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, could increase operating costs, cause project delays, or disrupt production, all of which would impact long-term profitability and cash flow.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $27.27 for Coeur Mining based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $19.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $5.1 billion, earnings will come to $1.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
Given the current share price of $17.53, the analyst price target of $27.27 is 35.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CDE: Expanded Exploration And Production Will Drive Future Share Performance