Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 21
Now 30% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 34% to €0.27. The fair value is estimated to be €0.38, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 20% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 25%. 공시 • May 30
Petrol AD, Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2025 Petrol AD, Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2025, at 11:00 FLE Standard Time. Location: lovech at 12 targovska st., lovech hotel, fl. 2, Bulgaria Reported Earnings • Aug 30
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: лв0.013 loss per share (vs лв0.13 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: лв0.013 loss per share (improved from лв0.13 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: лв130.2m (up 2.8% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: лв357.0k (loss narrowed 90% from 2Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 82% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 109% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Jun 09
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 171% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.7% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (лв24.6m market cap, or US$13.6m). Reported Earnings • Jun 04
First quarter 2024 earnings released: лв0.06 loss per share (vs лв0.094 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: лв0.06 loss per share (improved from лв0.094 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: лв114.5m (down 18% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: лв1.58m (loss narrowed 38% from 1Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 44% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to лв1.04, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.5x. Average trailing P/E is 16x in the Specialty Retail industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 373% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 22
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to лв1.02, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.4x. Average trailing P/E is 17x in the Specialty Retail industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 368% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 06
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 52% After last week's 52% share price gain to лв1.26, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.4x. Average trailing P/E is 18x in the Specialty Retail industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 404% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: лв0.23 (vs лв0.44 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: лв0.23 (down from лв0.44 in FY 2022). Revenue: лв590.4m (down 27% from FY 2022). Net income: лв6.33m (down 47% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.1% (down from 1.5% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 91% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 54% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Dec 14
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (93% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (лв11.5m market cap, or US$6.48m). 공시 • Sep 20
Petrol AD (BUL:PET) agreed to acquire Crystal Asset Management and Prima Consult Industry. Petrol AD (BUL:PET) agreed to acquire Crystal Asset Management and Prima Consult Industry in last week. Commission for Protection of Competition has approved the transaction. New Risk • Jul 12
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 20% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.2x net interest cover). Shares are highly illiquid. High level of non-cash earnings (20% accrual ratio). Market cap is less than US$10m (лв4.92m market cap, or US$2.77m). New Risk • Jun 25
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 20% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.4x net interest cover). Shares are highly illiquid. High level of non-cash earnings (20% accrual ratio). Market cap is less than US$10m (лв4.94m market cap, or US$2.75m). Reported Earnings • Jun 24
First quarter 2023 earnings released: лв0.09 loss per share (vs лв0.12 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: лв0.09 loss per share (improved from лв0.12 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: лв138.9m (up 10.0% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: лв2.57m (loss narrowed 22% from 1Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Dec 02
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: лв245.3m (up 62% from 3Q 2021). Net income: лв6.46m (up 133% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.6% (up from 1.8% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: лв0.091 loss per share (up from лв0.33 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: лв504.0m (up 28% from FY 2020). Net loss: лв2.50m (loss narrowed 72% from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 41 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: лв394.8m (down 27% from FY 2019). Net loss: лв6.89m (loss widened 38% from FY 2019).