Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Petrol AD (BUL:PET) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Petrol AD
What Is Petrol AD's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Petrol AD had лв155.3m of debt, up from лв51.6m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has лв3.41m in cash leading to net debt of about лв151.9m.
How Strong Is Petrol AD's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Petrol AD had liabilities of лв80.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of лв191.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of лв3.41m and лв70.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total лв197.4m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the лв26.8m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Petrol AD would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Petrol AD will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
In the last year Petrol AD's revenue was pretty flat, and it made a negative EBIT. While that's not too bad, we'd prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, Petrol AD had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Its EBIT loss was a whopping лв6.7m. When you combine this with the very significant balance sheet liabilities mentioned above, we are so wary of it that we are basically at a loss for the right words. Sure, the company might have a nice story about how they are going on to a brighter future. But the reality is that it is low on liquid assets relative to liabilities, and it lost лв87k in the last year. So we're not very excited about owning this stock. Its too risky for us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Petrol AD you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BUL:PET
Petrol AD
Engages in the processing, storage, wholesale, and retail sale of petroleum products and derivatives in Bulgaria.
Good value slight.