ZTO Express (Cayman)（ZTO）株式概要
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.は、中華人民共和国において、エクスプレス・デリバリーおよびその他の付加価値物流サービスを提供している。 詳細
ZTO Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 競合他社
価格と性能
| 過去の株価 | |
|---|---|
| 現在の株価 | US$22.90 |
| 52週高値 | US$26.20 |
| 52週安値 | US$17.74 |
| ベータ | -0.22 |
| 1ヶ月の変化 | -4.26% |
| 3ヶ月変化 | -2.76% |
| 1年変化 | 14.96% |
| 3年間の変化 | -5.06% |
| 5年間の変化 | -13.45% |
| IPOからの変化 | 38.20% |
最新ニュース
ナラティブ更新 • Jun 29
ZTO: Market Share Gains And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have raised the price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to $29.03 from $23.87, reflecting updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation multiples amid mixed recent target changes on the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a split in opinion, with some analysts focusing on potential upside from execution and profitability, while others emphasize overhangs related to shareholder moves and industry conditions.分析記事 • Jun 20
ZTO Express (ZTO) Stock Could Be 7.8% Undervalued as Automation Savings Come Into Focus
Recent Share Price Moves and Return Profile ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has drawn investor attention after recent trading saw the stock close at US$22. Over the past month, the share price declined about 4%, and over the past 3 months it fell roughly 10%. Looking further out, the stock is up about 2.5% year to date and gained roughly 31.8% over the past year. The 3 year and 5 year total returns declined about 4.3% and 19.5% respectively. See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman). For...
ナラティブ更新 • Jun 15
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Margin Gains Will Support Share Upside
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman) The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been updated to $32.53 from $31.48 as analysts weigh a higher projected profit margin and a lower future P/E, along with slightly softer revenue growth assumptions and ongoing questions around a potential Alibaba stake sale overhang. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a mix of optimism around profitability and market share, alongside concern about potential share overhang linked to a possible Alibaba stake sale.Recent updates
ナラティブ更新 • Jun 29
ZTO: Market Share Gains And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have raised the price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to $29.03 from $23.87, reflecting updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation multiples amid mixed recent target changes on the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a split in opinion, with some analysts focusing on potential upside from execution and profitability, while others emphasize overhangs related to shareholder moves and industry conditions.分析記事 • Jun 20
ZTO Express (ZTO) Stock Could Be 7.8% Undervalued as Automation Savings Come Into Focus
Recent Share Price Moves and Return Profile ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has drawn investor attention after recent trading saw the stock close at US$22. Over the past month, the share price declined about 4%, and over the past 3 months it fell roughly 10%. Looking further out, the stock is up about 2.5% year to date and gained roughly 31.8% over the past year. The 3 year and 5 year total returns declined about 4.3% and 19.5% respectively. See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman). For...ナラティブ更新 • Jun 15
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Margin Gains Will Support Share Upside
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman) The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been updated to $32.53 from $31.48 as analysts weigh a higher projected profit margin and a lower future P/E, along with slightly softer revenue growth assumptions and ongoing questions around a potential Alibaba stake sale overhang. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a mix of optimism around profitability and market share, alongside concern about potential share overhang linked to a possible Alibaba stake sale.Seeking Alpha • Jun 03
ZTO Express: Anticipated Margin Expansion Should Drive Re-Rating
Summary I maintain a 'Buy' rating on ZTO Express after analyzing its profitability prospects and valuations. ZTO's operating margins are expected to be on an uptrend in 2Q2026 and beyond, thanks to AI- and pricing-related tailwinds. I estimate a potential upside of +23% for ZTO's shares pegged to its historical three-year P/E average. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブ更新 • Jun 01
ZTO: Buybacks And Alibaba Stake Overhang Will Shape Execution And Sector Risks
Analysts have adjusted the blended fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to about $24.24 from $23.81. This reflects mixed changes in discount rate and growth assumptions as they weigh potential Alibaba stake sale overhang against views on valuation, share buybacks, and market share and profitability trends behind recent price target moves between about $25.60 and $30.10.分析記事 • May 23
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) filed its first-quarter result this time...ナラティブ更新 • May 13
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Capital Returns Will Support Upside Potential
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman) The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been adjusted slightly higher to $31.48 from $31.38, reflecting analysts' updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following recent research that includes both higher targets and a downgrade, balanced around share buybacks and modest earnings revisions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) reflects a mix of views, but the consensus price target has edged slightly higher as some analysts focus on valuation support, capital returns, and earnings potential.ナラティブ更新 • Apr 23
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for ZTO Express (Cayman) higher, lifting the updated fair value estimate to about $31.38 from roughly $31.00. Recent research highlights the impact of share buybacks, slightly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and revised long term P/E expectations across the Street.ナラティブ更新 • Apr 09
ZTO: Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Face Ongoing Execution And Growth Risks
Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about $21.10 to roughly $23.81. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and recent research that highlights share buybacks and improved unit economics, even as some views turn more cautious.ナラティブ更新 • Mar 25
ZTO: Future Share Repurchases And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) by about $2 to roughly $31, as they factor in updated growth and margin assumptions alongside recent Street research that includes a higher $26 price target at BofA, an upgrade at Macquarie on better unit economics, and a downgrade at Daiwa reflecting more cautious views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street views on ZTO Express (Cayman) are mixed, but there is a clear pocket of optimism from bullish analysts who are leaning into share buybacks, earnings revisions, and improved unit economics as reasons to take a more constructive stance on the stock.ナラティブ更新 • Mar 11
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to $29.03 from $28.84, citing updated fair value work that reflects ongoing share buybacks, a modest FY26 earnings uplift, and improved unit economics. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the latest fair value work leans on factors such as ongoing share buybacks, a 1% uplift to FY26 earnings expectations, and improved unit economics, which they see as supportive for the refreshed US$29.03 price target.ナラティブ更新 • Feb 25
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Better Unit Economics Will Support Upside
Analysts now see fair value for ZTO Express (Cayman) nudging higher, with their price target moving from about $27.72 to roughly $28.84. This points to expectations for slightly better long term growth, profitability and P/E support, backed by recent price target raises tied to share buybacks and improved unit economics.ナラティブ更新 • Feb 10
ZTO: Future Unit Economics Will Face Pressure From Execution Risks
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about US$19.53 to roughly US$21.10 per share, citing Street research that points to stronger unit economics, slightly higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, and a marginally lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research around ZTO Express (Cayman) has become more nuanced, with some highlighting better unit economics while others lean toward a more cautious stance on risks around execution, growth, and valuation.ナラティブ更新 • Jan 27
ZTO: Future Buybacks Will Support Upside As Parcel Volumes Expand
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to reflect a fair value estimate of about $27.72, incorporating updated views on revenue, profit margins and an assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) repurchased 2,020,008 shares, about 0.25% of its share base, for US$71.7 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).ナラティブ更新 • Jan 13
ZTO: Buybacks And Stable Margins Will Support Fairly Valued Shares
Analysts have increased their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to US$23.87 from US$23.29, reflecting updated assumptions about modestly stronger revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed share repurchases under the buyback announced on November 14, 2018, totaling 52,919,506 shares, or 6.5% of the company, for US$1.3b (Key Developments).分析記事 • Jan 07
These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 28
ZTO Express Delivers Volume-Led Revenue Growth in Q3 2025, but Margin Pressure Weighs on Operating Performance
based on recent valautionナラティブ更新 • Dec 26
ZTO: Future Margin Gains And Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) from approximately $17.52 to $19.53 per share, citing expectations for improved profit margins and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite a small reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News ZTO Express (Cayman) updated its 2018 share repurchase program, disclosing that between July 1 and September 30, 2025 it bought back 2,020,008 shares, or about 0.25% of shares outstanding, for approximately $71.7 million (company buyback filing).ナラティブ更新 • Dec 12
ZTO: Future Parcel Volume Expansion And Buybacks Will Drive Upside Potential
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been modestly reduced to approximately $27.26 from about $28.15, as analysts factor in slightly slower expected revenue growth and a higher discount rate, partly offset by improved profit margin forecasts and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back a total of 52,919,506 shares, about 6.5% of shares outstanding, for approximately $1.3 billion under the buyback first announced in November 2018 (company disclosure) Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, repurchased an additional 2,020,008 shares, roughly 0.25% of shares outstanding, for $71.7 million as the final tranche of the long running program (company disclosure) Issued 2025 parcel volume guidance of 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion parcels, implying year over year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% in shipment volume (company guidance) Scheduled a board meeting for November 19, 2025, to review and approve unaudited third quarter 2025 financial results and authorize their publication (board meeting notice) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was reduced slightly from $28.15 to $27.26 per share, reflecting more conservative growth assumptions.ナラティブ更新 • Nov 27
ZTO: Profit Margins Will Strengthen Despite Slower Volume Expansion
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) decreased from $22 to $20, as analysts point to slower delivery volume growth and a scarcity of near-term consolidation opportunities in the market. Analyst Commentary Following recent data releases and industry developments, analysts have provided updated perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s near-term prospects.ナラティブ更新 • Nov 13
ZTO: Profit Margins Will Remain Resilient Despite Volume Slowdown
The analyst average price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) was lowered slightly, down from $23.27 to $23.24, as analysts cite a slowdown in express delivery volume growth and limited near-term consolidation opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts provided further insight into ZTO Express (Cayman)'s recent price target revisions, noting a mix of positive execution signals and sector-specific headwinds influencing sentiment.ナラティブ更新 • Oct 29
Sustained Profitability And Efficiency Will Drive Continued Market Outperformance
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman): Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have marginally raised their price target for ZTO Express, increasing it from $23.22 to $23.27. This adjustment reflects sustained profitability, along with a cautious outlook due to slower express delivery volume growth and limited opportunities for near-term industry consolidation.ナラティブ更新 • Oct 15
China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been reduced by $0.39, as analysts cite slower express delivery volume growth and a cautious outlook on near-term market opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts have adjusted their perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman), weighing both the company's operational strengths and the challenges present in the current market environment.分析記事 • Sep 27
Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...ナラティブ更新 • Aug 27
China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
Despite a notable decline in both future P/E and consensus revenue growth forecasts for ZTO Express (Cayman), the consensus analyst price target has edged up from $22.95 to $23.58. What's in the News Company completed buyback of 50,899,498 shares (6.24%) for $1,228.3 million; no additional shares repurchased in recent quarter.分析記事 • Aug 22
Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) released its interim result to the market...Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
ZTO Express: Still Lack Of Strategic Clarity - Maintain 'Hold'
Summary ZTO Express' Q4 2024 results showed double-digit growth in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted net income, but parcel volume growth lagged behind the industry. Persistent strategic ambiguity and intense competition in China's express delivery market limit ZTO's potential for market re-rating, justifying a "hold" rating. Despite increasing ASP and higher margins, ZTO's market share declined, reflecting management's struggle to balance profitability and volume growth. At current prices, ZTO is fairly valued with limited upside, trading at a 30% discount to UPS due to a less favorable competitive environment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
新しいナラティブ • Nov 24
Decisive Innovations In E-commerce Partnerships And IT Systems To Fuel Logistics Growth
Strategic partnerships and service differentiation efforts aim to boost parcel volume, enhance pricing power, and drive revenue growth.Seeking Alpha • Nov 22
ZTO Express: Expect An Extended Price War, Downgrade To Hold
Summary ZTO Express faces ongoing challenges balancing profitability and growth amid a prolonged price war in China's express delivery industry, impacting its market share and financial outlook. Despite a 17.6% revenue increase and 23.2% gross profit growth in Q3 2024, ZTO's market share contracted by 2.2% year-over-year. Management's inconsistent strategy and vague future plans raise doubts about achieving a balance between quality, volume growth, and profitability. I am downgrading ZTO to a "hold" rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 06
ZTO Express: A Mix Of Positives And Negatives
Summary I am anticipating mixed results for ZTO in Q3 2024; my view is that ZTO would have registered faster revenue growth and margin contraction for the recent quarter. ZTO Express' long-term prospects are also mixed, as the Chinese express delivery sector is still expected to grow in the future, albeit at a more modest pace. I retain a Hold rating for ZTO stock, as there is a mix of positives and negatives associated with the stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 22
ZTO Express: Expecting Accelerating Volume Growth In H2
Summary ZTO Express' Q2 earnings show market share loss and focus on volume growth. Management shifts priority to volume growth to regain market share, aiming for an 18% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Financial projections indicate ZTO is undervalued, but short-term risk of margin decline due to an aggressive pricing strategy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 12
ZTO Express: Still Undervalued Despite Unexpected Market Share Loss
Summary Unexpected market share decline in 2024. Continued price war impacting all major players in China's express delivery industry. Financial projections and valuation updated, still showing potential for a 46% upside in two years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha株主還元
| ZTO | US Logistics | US 市場 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | 15.0% | 28.5% | 20.1% |
業界別リターン: ZTO過去 1 年間で28.5 % の収益を上げたUS Logistics業界を下回りました。
リターン対市場: ZTOは、過去 1 年間で20.1 % のリターンを上げたUS市場を下回りました。
価格変動
| ZTO volatility | |
|---|---|
| ZTO Average Weekly Movement | 2.7% |
| Logistics Industry Average Movement | 7.5% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
安定した株価: ZTO 、 US市場と比較して、過去 3 か月間で大きな価格変動はありませんでした。
時間の経過による変動: ZTOの 週次ボラティリティ ( 3% ) は過去 1 年間安定しています。
会社概要
| 設立 | 従業員 | CEO（最高経営責任者 | ウェブサイト |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 23,399 | Meisong Lai | www.zto.com |
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.は、中華人民共和国において、速達便やその他の付加価値物流サービスを提供している。また、LTL （Less Than Truckload）ロジスティクス・サービス、倉庫保管、配送、輸送の統合ロジスティクス・ソリューション、貨物輸送サービスも提供している。同社は2002年に設立され、中華人民共和国の上海に本社を置いている。
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 基礎のまとめ
| ZTO 基礎統計学 | |
|---|---|
| 時価総額 | US$17.37b |
| 収益（TTM） | US$1.37b |
| 売上高(TTM) | US$7.64b |
12.7x
PER（株価収益率2.3x
P/SレシオZTO は割高か？
公正価値と評価分析を参照収益と収入
| ZTO 損益計算書（TTM） | |
|---|---|
| 収益 | CN¥51.49b |
| 売上原価 | CN¥38.67b |
| 売上総利益 | CN¥12.82b |
| その他の費用 | CN¥3.61b |
| 収益 | CN¥9.21b |
直近の収益報告
Mar 31, 2026
次回決算日
Aug 18, 2026
| 一株当たり利益（EPS） | 12.13 |
| グロス・マージン | 24.89% |
| 純利益率 | 17.88% |
| 有利子負債／自己資本比率 | 34.1% |
ZTO の長期的なパフォーマンスは？
過去の実績と比較を見る配当金
3.0%
現在の配当利回り42%
配当性向企業分析と財務データの現状
| データ | 最終更新日（UTC時間） |
|---|---|
| 企業分析 | 2026/08/16 22:34 |
| 終値 | 2026/08/14 00:00 |
| 収益 | 2026/03/31 |
| 年間収益 | 2025/12/31 |
データソース
企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。
| パッケージ | データ | タイムフレーム | 米国ソース例 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 会社財務 | 10年 |
| |
| アナリストのコンセンサス予想 | +プラス3年 |
|
|
| 市場価格 | 30年 |
| |
| 所有権 | 10年 |
| |
| マネジメント | 10年 |
| |
| 主な進展 | 10年 |
|
* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。
特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。
分析モデルとスノーフレーク
このレポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は、当社のGitHubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの活用方法に関するガイドやYouTubeのチュートリアルも用意しています。
シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。
業界およびセクターの指標
私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。
アナリスト筋
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 20 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。31
| アナリスト | 機関 |
|---|---|
| Cherry Leung | Bernstein |
| Fan Tso | BofA Global Research |
| Y. Chen | CCB International Securities Limited |