Karoon Energy LtdASX:KAR 株式レポート

Karoon Energy Ltd – Fundamental Analysis Company Overview Karoon Energy Ltd is an ASX-listed international oil and gas exploration and production company with assets in: Brazil : Baúna Project (100% interest) USA : Who Dat, Dome Patrol, Abilene (various interests) Australia : Exploration assets Financial Performance 2024 Full-Year Highlights Revenue : US$776.5 million (+14% YoY) Underlying NPAT : US$214.0 million (+3% YoY) Statutory NPAT : US$127.5 million (↓39% YoY due to non-cash tax adjustments and exploration write-offs) Operating Cash Flow : US$434.6 million Free Cash Flow : US$176.6 million Net Debt : US$8.8 million (↓from US$103.7 million in 2023) Capital Returns : US$85.7 million (dividends + buybacks) Q2 2025 Performance Production (NRI) : 2.94 MMboe (↑25% QoQ) Sales Revenue : US$159.7 million (↑7% QoQ) Capex : US$102.9 million (includes Baúna FPSO acquisition) Net Debt : US$237.9 million (↑due to FPSO acquisition and buybacks) ⚙️ Operational Performance Baúna Project (Brazil) 2024 Production : 7.5 MMbbl FPSO Efficiency : 84.5% in 2024; targeted 88–92% in 2025 FPSO Acquisition : Completed April 2025; expected to reduce opex by US$4–6/bbl from 2026 SPS-92 ESP Issue : Temporary production drop; intervention planned for Q2 2026 Who Dat (USA) 2024 Production : 2.9 MMboe (NRI) 2025 Guidance : 2.3–2.8 MMboe Development : Sidetrack drilling and tieback studies underway; FID for East/South expected by early 2026 ️ Reserves & Resources 2P Reserves (2024) : 67.9 MMboe (↓from 77.5 MMboe due to production) 2C Contingent Resources : 121.4 MMboe (↑17% YoY) Includes Neon (Brazil) and Who Dat East/South (USA) Sustainability & ESG Carbon Neutral (Scope 1 & 2) : Achieved since FY21 Net Zero Target : By 2050 or sooner Social Projects : 21 planned for 2025; aligned with UN SDGs 2025 Guidance (as of August 2025) MetricGuidance Total Production9.7–10.5 MMboeUnit Production Cost (NWI)US$12.5–17.5/boeCapexUS$99–117 millionFinance CostsUS$50–60 millionPetrobras PaymentUS$88 million Investment Considerations ✅ Strengths Diversified production base (Brazil + USA) Strong cash generation and liquidity Strategic FPSO acquisition to improve efficiency Mature development pipeline (Neon, Who Dat East/South) Active capital return policy (dividends + buybacks) ⚠️ Risks Operational reliability issues (e.g., ESP failure at Baúna) High capex and net debt increase in 2025 Commodity price volatility Regulatory and environmental risks in Brazil and USA Conclusion Karoon Energy is fundamentally strong with solid financials, a diversified asset base, and a clear strategy for growth and shareholder returns. However, operational execution and commodity price stability will be key to sustaining performance.

Key Takeaways Operational enhancements and opportunistic acquisitions are set to boost production uptime, earnings scale, and margins for sustained growth. Leadership in decarbonization and ESG initiatives is improving pricing power and lowering capital costs, supporting stronger long-term returns.

Overview Our analysis indicates that Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) is generating exceptionally strong free cash flow (FCF), with an FCF margin of ~45%—well above industry averages. Supported by a $65 per BOE base case, stable production growth (+3.8% annually), and a well-structured CAPEX program ($120M p.a.), Karoon is positioned to generate ~$293M USD in annual free cash flow.

Key Takeaways Structural cost reductions and improved production uptime at core assets support higher margins, greater reserve booking, and enhanced long-term cash flow certainty. Reserve and production growth initiatives, alongside a favorable oil market backdrop, position the company for ongoing earnings strength and asset value appreciation.