Model N, Inc.

Report azionario NYSE:MODN

Capitalizzazione di mercato: US$1.2b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Model N Salute del bilancio

Criteri Salute finanziaria verificati 4/6

Model N ha un patrimonio netto totale di $137.0M e un debito totale di $281.2M, che porta il suo rapporto debito/patrimonio netto a 205.2%. Le sue attività totali e le sue passività totali sono rispettivamente $538.4M e $401.4M.

Informazioni chiave

205.22%

Rapporto debito/patrimonio netto

US$281.20m

Debito

Indice di copertura degli interessin/a
ContantiUS$334.56m
Patrimonio nettoUS$137.02m
Totale passivitàUS$401.38m
Totale attivitàUS$538.40m

Aggiornamenti recenti sulla salute finanziaria

Articolo di analisi • Mar 31

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Articolo di analisi • Sep 27

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Articolo di analisi • Jun 15

We Think Model N (NYSE:MODN) Has A Fair Chunk Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Articolo di analisi • Jan 13

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Debt Sensibly?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Articolo di analisi • Sep 28

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...

Recent updates

Articolo di analisi • Mar 31

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 26

Model N: Unspectacular But Steady (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Model N, a revenue management software company, has seen flat performance this year due to a slowdown in revenue growth and tough competition. The company has achieved stronger SaaS ARR growth and has a healthy pipeline conversion, but there are few upside catalysts left. Model N faces saturation in its niche market, competition from stronger brands, and limited operating leverage, making its valuation of 21x EV/FY24 adjusted EBITDA rich. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Articolo di analisi • Mar 13

Getting In Cheap On Model N, Inc. (NYSE:MODN) Is Unlikely

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 4.4x in the Software industry in the United States, you could...
Articolo di analisi • Feb 09

Model N, Inc. (NYSE:MODN) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

A week ago, Model N, Inc. ( NYSE:MODN ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 10

Model N Is Dead Money, Recent Downside Will Likely Continue

Summary Model N, a small-cap tech stock, has underperformed and is expected to continue to decline. MODN faces oversaturation in its niche market and has low penetration, raising concerns about its growth potential. Trading at ~20x EBITDA, there is little incentive to buy this stock even after a decline in 2023. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 16

Model N: A Resilient Growth Story In Revenue Management Solutions

Summary I am positive about Model N due to its strong performance in revenue management solutions for life sciences and high-tech companies. MODN has consistently achieved double-digit revenue growth rates and a positive EBITDA trajectory, demonstrating resilience and robustness. The company's successful transition to a SaaS business model and alignment with industry growth projections solidify its position as a promising investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Articolo di analisi • Sep 27

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 22

Model N: Where Do We Go From Here? (Ratings Downgrade)

Summary Tech stocks have seen a decline in the Q2 earnings season, including revenue-management software company Model N. Model N is struggling to show substantial growth and justify its market cap, putting it in a precarious position in the tech industry. Despite having a large total addressable market, Model N's growth rate is relatively low compared to competitors like Salesforce.com. Profits haven't kept up enough to justify Model N's >$1 billion market cap. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Articolo di analisi • Jul 17

Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Model N, Inc.'s (NYSE:MODN) Shares

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 5x in the Software industry in the United States, you could...
Articolo di analisi • Jun 15

We Think Model N (NYSE:MODN) Has A Fair Chunk Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Articolo di analisi • Apr 10

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Model N, Inc. (NYSE:MODN)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Model N is US$28.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With US$34.21...
Articolo di analisi • Feb 10

This Is Why Shareholders Will Hold Back On A Pay Rise For Model N, Inc.'s (NYSE:MODN) CEO This Year

The anaemic share price growth at Model N, Inc. ( NYSE:MODN ) over the past few years has probably not impressed...
Articolo di analisi • Jan 13

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Using Debt Sensibly?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Seeking Alpha • Dec 20

Model N: Fundamentals Don't Support Valuation

Summary Shares of Model N, up nearly 30% year to date, are one of a few tech stocks to rise in 2022. While Model N has turned in decent performance and stabilized at low-double digit revenue growth, it lacks major growth catalysts going forward. Trading at ~6x forward revenue, Model N is now valued more expensively than tech companies that are growing much faster. Its profitability is also still too thin to be valued from that angle. Model N (MODN) is something of a contrarian play. When tech stocks were rising in 2020 and 2021, Model N barely moved, which was understandable - in those years, investors were chasing the fastest-growing tech names and IPOs, and Model N, as a rather boring verticalized vendor of revenue management and compliance software, didn't make that cut. But 2022 was most surprising of all: as other SaaS names declined to the tune of 40% or more as investors retreated from growth stocks, Model N rallied this year. And while it's true that Model N's performance this year has slightly improved (with organic growth now stabilizing in the low-teens range) while other companies have cited macro headwinds, the fact that Model N's stock has risen nearly 30% this year bears close watching: Data by YCharts To level-set here: I was bullish on Model N as recently as this April, as well as throughout most of 2021, when the stock was trading in the mid-$20s to low $30s. Now, with Model N having rallied virtually nonstop since July and approaching $40, I am now bearish on the name. Here are the key considerations worth mentioning: Where does Model N go from here? Model N is a vertical software company that is designed specifically for customers in the life sciences and technology (primarily semiconductor) industries. Within these sectors, the company has already signed some of the biggest names as clients, including Pfizer (PFE), Qualcomm (QCOM), Abbott (ABT), Micron (MU), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and several other mega blue-chips. It's unclear what the company's strategy is to grow substantially from here, beyond simply defending its current base. Gross margin deficit to other SaaS peers- Though Model N saw slight expansion in gross margins in its most recent quarter, its low-60% pro forma gross margins are a full 10-15 points lower than most other SaaS companies, reducing its ability for operating leverage at scale. M&A-driven growth- A lot of the company's >20% y/y revenue growth last year (which has since dwindled) is due to an acquisition of Deloitte Business Services. Going forward, Model N may continue to double down on its inorganic growth playbook, despite the fact that it has quite limited liquidity. But most starkly of all, we have to consider Model N's valuation in relation to other tech stocks today. At current share prices near $39, Model N has a market cap of $1.46 billion. After we net off the $193.5 million of cash and $135.4 million of debt on Model N's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $1.40 billion. Meanwhile, for FY23 (which for Model N is the year ending in September 2023), Model N has guided to 10% y/y growth to $241-$244 million in revenue: Model N outlook (Model N Q4 earnings release) This puts Model N's revenue valuation at 5.8x EV/FY23 revenue. Note that there are plenty of faster-growing, fallen-angel tech stocks that are trading at far lower valuation multiples. Note Asana (ASAN), for instance, which is one of my top buy ideas at the moment - the stock is trading at <4x forward revenue despite expectations for >20% y/y revenue growth in 2023. And while Model N does generate a sliver of profitability from an adjusted EBITDA standpoint, it's still too early to value this company from any earnings standpoint. Based on its $0.90-$0.97 pro forma EPS and $37-$40 million adjusted EBITDA outlook for FY23, Model N's earnings-based multiples go to: ~41x forward P/E ~36x EV/FY23 adjusted EBITDA The bottom line here: Model N looks propped up from a stock valuation perspective, with little fundamental backing. While we applaud the company's relatively stronger quarterly results against a tougher backdrop for tech companies, it's difficult to believe in much further upside from current levels. Lock in any gains you have on this stock and re-invest it elsewhere. Q4 download Let's now go through Model N's latest quarterly results in greater detail. Again, the key message here is: while it's true that Model N's performance has held up better than expectations, it's hardly sufficient to justify what I now consider to be a premium valuation for the stock. The Q4 earnings summary is shown below: Model N Q4 results (Model N Q4 earnings release) Model N's revenue grew 13% y/y to $58.2 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $56.4 million (+10% y/y) by a three-point margin. We do note as well that Model N's revenue growth rate also accelerated three points relative to 10% y/y growth in fiscal Q3. We won't downplay this: this is an impressive feat in an earnings cycle where many tech companies have cited steep macro headwinds as the reason for sharp deceleration. At the same time, we'll repeat: is 13% y/y growth really exciting enough to justify a ~6x revenue multiple? Model N has focused of late on moving customers to the cloud and onto its subscription SaaS products. The company has seen success in retaining and upselling customers in the cloud. Per CEO Jason Blessing's prepared remarks on the Q4 earnings call: Our SaaS subscription growth retention rates are best-in-class and have been trending at or above 90%. And during the 12 months ended September 30th, 2022, our SaaS net dollar retention rate was 129%, a new high watermark for us [...] This past year, we made significant progress on transitions. As of the end of fiscal 2022, we have transitioned approximately 70% of our on-premise Life Sciences customers to the cloud. We expect to have substantially all of our customers transitioned over the next 12 to 18 months, and we remain ahead of our internal plan for SaaS transitions, which is one of the reasons we saw upside this year. In addition to successful SaaS transitions, overall sales momentum continued to be strong during 2022, due in part to the changes we've made over the last three years to our go-to-market teams, most notably building out dedicated customer base and new logo sales teams. This go-to-market alignment has allowed us to capitalize on SaaS transitions, but what's even more important is the focus drove a shift in our bookings composition this year"
Articolo di analisi • Sep 28

Is Model N (NYSE:MODN) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 20

Model N: Little Reason To Stay Invested

Summary Shares of Model N, up 1% year to date, is one of the few tech stocks to not have suffered a massive loss this year. This revenue-management SaaS platform has seen its growth rates decelerate to the ~10% y/y range. Profitability is improving, but still not to a level that can justify Model N's valuation. As a niche software vendor with limited brand equity and capital, it's difficult to see true drivers for a further rally in Model N. I've always held onto the premise that picking small-cap, relatively unknown stocks during times of market volatility is the best way to outperform indices. Model N (MODN) is living proof of that. This relatively obscure software vendor, which sells revenue-management solutions specifically to life sciences and technology companies, has been one of the few tech stocks to actually see a year to date gain versus crushing losses for the rest of the sector. So far, Model N is up ~1% on the year - which doesn't sound like much unless you're acutely aware that most SaaS stocks are down in the neighborhood of 40% or more. Yet at this juncture, I also think Model N's luck has run out, as I don't view this company as having significant fundamental drivers to continue fueling its rally. Data by YCharts I remain neutral on Model N. The company saw a burst of enthusiasm from investors after it reported fiscal Q3 results (which we'll dig into more detail in the next section) in mid-August, particularly on its gross margin gains and adjusted EBITDA growth. At the same time, however, I do have some "yellow flags" that prevent me from being as enthusiastic on Model N at >$30 as I was when the stock was trading in the $20s: Very niche solution that doesn't have a huge growth runway ahead of it. Recall that Model N serves only two industries, life sciences and high technology (and on the latter, it's more limited to semiconductor companies). While Model N's traction within these industries is certainly impressive, having nabbed some of the largest names including Pfizer (PFE) and Intel (INTC), it begs the question: how much further does Model N really have to go? Model N's ~10% y/y revenue growth rates is a pretty stark indication that the company's runway is quite limited. M&A-driven growth. A lot of the company's >20% y/y revenue growth last year (which has since dwindled) is due to an acquisition of Deloitte Business Services. Going forward, Model N may continue to double down on its inorganic growth playbook, despite the fact that it has quite limited liquidity. Gross margin deficit to other SaaS peers. Though Model N saw slight expansion in gross margins in its most recent quarter, its low-60% pro forma gross margins are a full 10-15 points lower than most other SaaS companies, reducing its ability for operating leverage at scale. Valuation wise, I also don't see Model N as much of a bargain anymore. At current share prices near $31, Model N trades at a market cap of $1.16 billion. After we net off the $184.5 million of cash and $132.5 million of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet (a pretty thin $52 million net cash position), the company's resulting enterprise value is $1.11 billion. Meanwhile, for the current fiscal year (for which only one quarter remains), Model N has slightly boosted its full-year guidance to $217.0-$217.5 million in revenue and $31.9-$32.4 million in adjusted EBITDA, versus a prior outlook of $215.5-$216.5 million in revenue and $27.5-$28.5 million in adjusted EBITDA. This guidance now implies a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin, two points richer than 13% in the prior outlook. Model N guidance (Model N Q3 earnings release) This puts Model N's current-year valuation multiples at: 5.1x EV/FY22 revenue 35.6x EV/FY22 adjusted EBITDA Even if we carry forward to next year's FY23 estimates (consensus stands at $242.2 million in revenue, representing 12% y/y growth; data from Yahoo Finance), Model N's revenue multiple only slides down slightly to 4.6x EV/FY23 revenue. For context - there are software companies that are growing at a much faster current pace (25%+) that are trading at lower multiples of next year's revenue, including Smartsheet (SMAR), Okta (OKTA), Splunk (SPLK), and C3.ai (AI). Bear in mind as well that Model N's gross margin gap to most SaaS peers warrants a discount. The bottom line here: I see very little incentive to stay invested in Model N at current levels. It's a good time to lock in gains and reinvest the profits in more battered SaaS stocks. Q3 download Let's now go through Model N's latest fiscal Q3 (covering the June quarter; Model N has a September year-end) in greater detail. The Q3 earnings summary is shown below: Model N Q3 results (Model N Q3 earnings release) Q3 revenue grew 10% y/y to $56.2 million, beating Wall Street's expectations of $54.9 million (+8% y/y). Revenue growth did decelerate, however, relative to 11% y/y growth in Q2. The positive spin on this: the company noted that its transition to subscriptions/SaaS is proceeding ahead of plan, which is always a near-term hit to revenue growth.
Articolo di analisi • Aug 06

Estimating The Fair Value Of Model N, Inc. (NYSE:MODN)

How far off is Model N, Inc. ( NYSE:MODN ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 06

Model N: Downgrading To Neutral On Deceleration

Value software stock Model N has been one of the milder decliners within the software sector, losing only 13% of its value this year. Fundamentals have held up against expectations, though growth is decelerating due to lapping a major acquisition last year. Sequentially, subscription revenue growth is stalling, raising potential go-to-market concerns. Trading at ~4x forward revenue, Model N is still cheap, but higher-quality companies are also trading in the same neighborhood. When it comes to planning for a rebound, I think stock selection is of paramount importance. A rising tide lifts all boats (should the S&P rally by year-end, which is my base-case assumption), but investors will do much better by cherry-picking high-quality, beaten-down stocks with the most valuation rope to climb. And as we work through this choppy trading year, we should be keen to trade out positions as the landscape changes. Model N (MODN), in particular, is a company I've had a change of heart on. Now, through this year, Model N has been a fortuitous performer. Year to date, the stock has lost only 13% of its value (versus 40% or more for many other SaaS names) - which is a reflection of its milder valuation versus its peers. At the same time, however, I do think Model N's relative outperformance is at an end. Data by YCharts For investors who are not familiar with this company: Model N is a revenue management software platform specifically designed for technology and life sciences companies. Its products include pricing management/CPQ/deal structuring tools that are available in larger "portfolio" software vendors like Salesforce (CRM) or Oracle/NetSuite (ORCL). Model N is what we would consider "verticalized" software - with functionality specifically tailored to its target industries that purportedly offer a better fit than generic, cookie-cutter software. Relatively speaking, Model N's traction is impressive. It counts among its customers some of the most recognizable names in its target industries, including: Pfizer (PFE), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Micron (MU), AMD (AMD), and Abbott (ABT). Yet at the same time, recent results have us wondering: where can Model N grow from here? Last year, Model N made a major acquisition, taking over the Business Services segment at Deloitte. The strategy here was to combine a consultation/"professional services" arm to help Model N customers onboard to their platform. This acquisition was accretive to both revenue and EBITDA; but now, one year post-acquisition, Model N's reported growth rates are looking a lot milder. So, yes, Model N is a value stock. But I'm not sure it has enough "juice" to rally, especially since many other software stocks are now trading in its valuation neighborhood despite showing superior growth. At Model N's current share price near $27, the company trades at a market cap of $989 million. After we net off the $170 million of cash and $130 million of debt on Model N's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $948 million. For the current fiscal year, Model N is guiding to $215.5-$216.5 million in revenue, which is a slight boost from its prior outlook given in Q1 of $212-$214.5 million. It's also assuming a 13% adjusted EBITDA margin on this revenue profile and guiding to $27.5-$28.5 million in adjusted EBITDA. Model N guidance (Model N Q2 earnings release) This puts Model N's valuation at: 4.4x EV/FY22 revenue 33.9x EV/FY22 adjusted EBITDA From a bottom line perspective, Model N's adjusted EBITDA is still too thin to justify an earnings-based multiple. The ~4x revenue multiple looks cheap, but due to the severe correction in the tech sector, there are now a number of higher-growth and higher-quality stocks trading in the same neighborhood, shown below: Data by YCharts Any of these names, in my view, are far better contenders to invest in for a rebound in the ~3.5-5.0x forward revenue multiple bucket. The bottom line here: If you've held onto Model N since the start of the year, congratulations - its losses have beaten the S&P 500 by a few points, and vis-a-vis the rest of the software sector, Model N has done quite a bit better. But now that reported growth rates are slowing down, subscription revenue growth looks a bit sluggish, and valuation is now more in line with higher-performing peers, I'm updating my rating on Model N to Neutral. You'll do better investing elsewhere from here on out. Signs of a slowdown In Q2 (the fiscal quarter for Model N ending in March), Model N grew its revenue at an 11% y/y pace to $53.3 million, outpacing Wall Street's expectations of $51.3 million (+6% y/y). Model N growth trajectory (Model N Q2 earnings deck) This revenue growth slowed down versus 22% y/y growth in Q1, but to a large extent, this was already expected - as Model N is finally lapping the Deloitte acquisition that closed in the second quarter of last year. That's not my main concern - the bigger red flag here is that Model N's subscription revenue has been flat over the past three quarters. If you look at the revenue trend in the chart above, you'll notice that subscription revenue has held flat at ~$38 million over the past three quarters.
Articolo di analisi • Jun 14

Health Check: How Prudently Does Model N (NYSE:MODN) Use Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Analisi della posizione finanziaria

Passività a breve termine: Le attività a breve termine ( $427.0M ) di MODN superano le sue passività a breve termine ( $110.5M ).

Passività a lungo termine: Le attività a breve termine di MODN ( $427.0M ) superano le sue passività a lungo termine ( $290.8M ).

Storia e analisi del rapporto debito/patrimonio netto

Livello di debito: MODN ha più liquidità del suo debito totale.

Riduzione del debito: Il rapporto debito/patrimonio netto di MODN è aumentato da 95.7% a 205.2% negli ultimi 5 anni.

Copertura del debito: Il debito di MODN è ben coperto dal flusso di cassa operativo ( 21.6% ).

Copertura degli interessi: Dati insufficienti per determinare se i pagamenti degli interessi sul debito di MODN siano ben coperti dall'EBIT.

Bilancio

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Analisi aziendale e situazione dei dati finanziari

DatiUltimo aggiornamento (ora UTC)
Analisi dell'azienda2024/06/26 18:08
Prezzo dell'azione a fine giornata2024/06/26 00:00
Utili2024/03/31
Utili annuali2023/09/30

Fonti dei dati

I dati utilizzati nella nostra analisi aziendale provengono da S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. I seguenti dati sono utilizzati nel nostro modello di analisi per generare questo report. I dati sono normalizzati, il che può comportare un ritardo nella disponibilità della fonte.

PacchettoDatiTempisticaEsempio Fonte USA *
Dati finanziari della società10 anni
  • Conto economico
  • Rendiconto finanziario
  • Bilancio
Stime di consenso degli analisti+3 anni
  • Previsioni finanziarie
  • Obiettivi di prezzo degli analisti
Prezzi di mercato30 anni
  • Prezzi delle azioni
  • Dividendi, scissioni e azioni
Proprietà10 anni
  • Top azionisti
  • Insider trading
Gestione10 anni
  • Team di leadership
  • Consiglio di amministrazione
Sviluppi principali10 anni
  • Annunci aziendali

* Esempio per i titoli statunitensi, per i titoli non statunitensi si utilizzano forme e fonti normative equivalenti.

Se non specificato, tutti i dati finanziari si basano su un periodo annuale ma vengono aggiornati trimestralmente. Si tratta dei cosiddetti dati TTM (Trailing Twelve Month) o LTM (Last Twelve Month). Per saperne di più.

Modello di analisi e Snowflake

I dettagli del modello di analisi utilizzato per generare questo report sono disponibili sulla nostra pagina Github; abbiamo anche guide su come utilizzare i nostri report e tutorial su Youtube.

Scoprite il team di livello mondiale che ha progettato e realizzato il modello di analisi Simply Wall St.

Metriche di settore e industriali

Le nostre metriche di settore e di sezione sono calcolate ogni 6 ore da Simply Wall St; i dettagli del nostro processo sono disponibili su Github.

Fonti analitiche

Model N, Inc. è coperta da 15 analisti. 8 di questi analisti ha fornito le stime di fatturato o di utile utilizzate come input per il nostro report. Le stime degli analisti vengono aggiornate nel corso della giornata.

AnalistaIstituzione
Eugene MannheimerColliers Securities
Chad BennettCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC
Nandan AmladiDeutsche Bank