GEO Group Croissance future
Future contrôle des critères 0/6
Les bénéfices de GEO Group devraient diminuer de 15.1% par an tandis que son chiffre d'affaires annuel devrait croître de 9.8% par an. Le BPA devrait croître de en baisse de 10.4% par an.
Informations clés
-15.1%
Taux de croissance des bénéfices
-10.35%
Taux de croissance du BPA
| Commercial Services croissance des bénéfices | 13.5% |
| Taux de croissance des recettes | 9.8% |
| Rendement futur des capitaux propres | n/a |
| Couverture par les analystes | Low |
| Dernière mise à jour | 07 May 2026 |
Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 20h
GEO Group: Q1 Results Validate The Turnaround, But Policy Risks Remain
Summary The GEO Group Inc. delivered a strong Q1 '26, with 17% revenue growth, 32% EBITDA growth, and raised full-year guidance across all metrics. Despite operational strength and a robust contract backlog, GEO's valuation at $22 now reflects fair value, not a discount, given persistent policy risk. ICE contracts account for 51% of revenue, and unresolved policy risk can trigger rapid stock repricing, as seen with a 13% drop on a single headline. I rate GEO a hold, as the risk/reward at current levels lacks sufficient margin of safety despite management’s solid execution and capital allocation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Mise à jour du récit • May 13
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their GEO Group price targets, with recent cuts such as a move to $28 from $35, mainly citing slower than expected growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research comments have focused on how GEO Group’s updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance feed into both growth expectations and the valuation framework that analysts are using.
Mise à jour du récit • Apr 28
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on GEO Group, with reductions such as from $35 to $28, reflecting slower than anticipated growth following recent Q4 results and 2026 guidance updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets on GEO Group, but are still signaling confidence in the company’s long term execution and growth potential despite the slower than anticipated trajectory implied by Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
Mise à jour du récit • Apr 13
GEO: Slower Guidance And Leadership Shifts Set Up Future Detention Upside
Analysts have reduced GEO Group's fair value estimate to $27 from $35, reflecting updated expectations for slower growth and lower profit margins following recent guidance. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have moved to lower GEO Group's valuation anchors, pointing to slower growth expectations and pressure on profit margins after the latest quarter and 2026 guidance.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 30
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Reset Earnings Expectations
Analysts have reduced their price expectations for GEO Group, with recent updates lowering targets to $28. This reflects slower than anticipated growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending Upside Will Drive 2026 Earnings Repricing
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for GEO Group from $35.00 to $33.00, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated earnings assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value and price target revisions as a recalibration after updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance, rather than a shift away from a constructive long term view on GEO Group.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 02
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Buybacks Will Support Path Toward $3b Revenue
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group to $29.50 from $32.25, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally aligned with the trimmed fair value estimate, with price targets recalibrated after the company issued Q4 results and 2026 guidance that pointed to slower than previously assumed growth.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Leadership Shift Will Shape 2026 Earnings
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $2 to $35, citing updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest target changes as a recalibration rather than a shift in view on GEO Group’s underlying thesis.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 02
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Programs Will Underpin 2026 Earnings Profile
Analysts have trimmed their price target on GEO Group to US$37 from US$50, citing revised growth estimates and a softer profit outlook, even as they continue to highlight potential revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the lower US$37 price target as a reset rather than a reversal in their view on GEO Group.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 19
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Will Support Path Toward $3B Revenue
Narrative Update Analysts cut their price target on GEO Group by $13 to $37, citing revised estimates that reflect slower than expected growth toward the projected $3b+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring. They still expressed a positive view on all business segments, including the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 05
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring Contracts Will Drive Path Toward $3B Annualized Revenue
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on GEO Group, trimming expectations by approximately $13 per share to reflect slower than expected growth. They are still emphasizing long term revenue potential from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs.Mise à jour du récit • Dec 21
GEO Will Benefit From Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Expansion By 2026
Analysts have reduced their price target on GEO Group to $37.00 from $50.00, citing slower than previously expected revenue growth and profitability, despite continued optimism about the company’s long term contract and monitoring opportunities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize that the revised $37.00 price target still implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, arguing that the market has not fully reflected GEO Group’s multi year contract pipeline and expanding monitoring footprint in its valuation.Mise à jour du récit • Dec 07
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring And Contract Wins Will Drive Revenue Expansion By 2026
Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on GEO Group, reflecting a recalibration toward slower near term growth. They continue to highlight multi year contract wins and monitoring opportunities that could support the path to more than $3 billion in annualized revenue and underpin an updated fair value estimate of approximately $32.25 per share.Mise à jour du récit • Nov 23
GEO: Upcoming Contracts Will Significantly Boost Annual Revenue By 2026
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $34.25 to $32.25. They cite revised estimates that reflect slower-than-expected growth, although there remains continued optimism around new contract opportunities and segment performance.Article d’analyse • Nov 14
GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals
Last week's profit announcement from The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...Mise à jour du récit • Nov 08
GEO: New Contracts Will Drive Annualized Revenue Past $3 Billion
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $39 to $34.25 per share, citing slower-than-expected revenue growth and profit margins based on recent research updates. However, they remain optimistic about the company's long-term opportunities.Mise à jour du récit • Sep 04
Federal Funding Will Expand ICE Facility Activations
Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.Article d’analyse • Aug 08
Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...Article d’analyse • Jul 10
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Article d’analyse • Jun 22
Investors Will Want GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Growth In ROCE To Persist
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Article d’analyse • May 14
Investors Can Find Comfort In GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Earnings Quality
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit...Article d’analyse • Apr 27
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x may not look like an appealing investment...Article d’analyse • Mar 22
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Seeking Alpha • Mar 21
The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward
Summary GEO Group's EBITDA declined in 2024, and missed my expectations. Refinancing in April 2024 lowered interest expenses but increased share count by 15%, diluting stock value. The market cap is $3.6 billion with an EV/EBITDA ratio over 11x, making the stock overvalued compared to my initial target. The stock no longer offers favorable risk/reward, as it missed EBITDA expectations and has a higher share count. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArticle d’analyse • Mar 04
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a good week for The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Article d’analyse • Feb 25
These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Feb 10
GEO Group: Shares Have Gotten Ahead Of Growth Potential
Summary GEO Group's stock surged post-Trump election but has eased back down recently. Financial stability is evident with $166 million free cash flow in YTD 2024, despite a slight decline from the previous year. Debt reduction commitment is strong, with plans to cut $150-$175 million annually, enhancing earnings and potential future dividends. Earnings growth through government contracts and debt reduction is likely, but 2025 earnings are estimated at $1.20 per share, suggesting patience for better pricing. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArticle d’analyse • Jan 18
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month alone...Seeking Alpha • Jan 13
The GEO Group: Further Upside Potential From Trump's Immigration Policy
Summary In Q3 2024, The GEO Group posted flat revenue growth and generated $603 million in revenues. Margins showed varied trends, with operating margin deteriorating to 18.91% but net income margin improving to 4.31%. GEO may be in a position to support a possible increase in demand coming from any changes in immigration policy. Investors should not expect capital returns from share repurchases or dividends, as the company remains focus on deleveraging. Additionally, capacity expansion to meet demand may also affect cash liquidity. Despite GEO stock's recent rally, valuation analysis suggests that there's a potential upside of between 29.94% and 45.74% for investors to capitalize on. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArticle d’analyse • Dec 31
When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?
While The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NYSE gainers with a...Article d’analyse • Dec 16
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...Article d’analyse • Dec 04
Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?
Key Insights GEO Group's estimated fair value is US$38.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity GEO Group's...Article d’analyse • Oct 29
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...Seeking Alpha • Oct 24
GEO Group: Financial Deterioration Amid Debt Reduction Focus
Summary In 2024, GEO Group's revenue grew by 2%, driven by new contracts, despite a decline in electronic monitoring revenue and deteriorating operating margins. The potential expansion of ICE's detention beds and mandatory GPS monitoring could significantly boost GEO Group's revenue, pending congressional approval. Ultimately, the company's financial performance has been deteriorating and shows no signs of abating. Both operating margin and FCF margin have declined considerably. Valuation analysis suggests that GEO is fairly priced. There is a huge upside potential exists if the company is able to improve its growth and optimize its margins. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Nouveau récit • Sep 12
Calculated Contracts And Legislative Developments Fuel Growth In Managed Services And Tech Solutions
New contracts with ICE and in Australia are poised to drive revenue growth in the managed-only segment from increased contract activations.Article d’analyse • Sep 05
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Prévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus
| Date | Recettes | Les revenus | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Cash from Op | Moy. Nombre d'analystes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2027 | 3,242 | 216 | 225 | 365 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 2,984 | 162 | 343 | 498 | 4 |
| 3/31/2026 | 2,732 | 273 | -31 | 158 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 2,632 | 254 | -125 | 73 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,532 | 237 | 26 | 208 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,452 | 88 | 131 | 238 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,423 | 27 | 135 | 230 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,424 | 30 | 164 | 242 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,424 | 36 | 194 | 271 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,424 | 30 | 202 | 283 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,411 | 89 | 192 | 266 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,413 | 89 | 205 | 278 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,426 | 103 | 228 | 299 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,439 | 114 | 148 | 234 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,434 | 134 | 179 | 269 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,377 | 142 | 198 | 288 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,314 | 65 | 136 | 221 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,254 | 62 | 188 | 249 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,231 | 53 | 224 | 280 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 2,257 | 70 | 213 | 283 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 2,277 | 126 | 291 | 373 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,299 | 136 | 291 | 391 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,321 | 137 | 333 | 438 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,350 | 113 | 333 | 442 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,394 | 139 | 263 | 373 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 2,446 | 146 | 263 | 378 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 2,472 | 151 | 248 | 367 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 2,478 | 167 | N/A | 338 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 2,456 | 162 | N/A | 377 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 2,408 | 155 | N/A | 311 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 2,377 | 151 | N/A | 304 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 2,331 | 145 | N/A | 274 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 2,301 | 148 | N/A | 543 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 2,284 | 147 | N/A | 511 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 2,278 | 141 | N/A | 403 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 2,263 | 146 | N/A | 381 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 2,261 | 159 | N/A | 42 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 2,249 | 165 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 2,220 | 157 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 2,179 | 149 | N/A | -28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 2,113 | 143 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 2,029 | 138 | N/A | 101 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,926 | 143 | N/A | 64 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 1,843 | 139 | N/A | 142 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,771 | 133 | N/A | 149 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,759 | 134 | N/A | 150 | N/A |
Prévisions de croissance des analystes
Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: Les bénéfices de GEO devraient diminuer au cours des 3 prochaines années ( -15.1% par an).
Bénéfices vs marché: Les bénéfices de GEO devraient diminuer au cours des 3 prochaines années ( -15.1% par an).
Croissance élevée des bénéfices: Les bénéfices de GEO devraient baisser au cours des trois prochaines années.
Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Le chiffre d'affaires de GEO ( 9.8% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que le marché de US ( 11.7% par an).
Croissance élevée des revenus: Le chiffre d'affaires de GEO ( 9.8% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que 20% par an.
Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action
Rendement futur des capitaux propres
ROE futur: Données insuffisantes pour déterminer si le retour sur capitaux propres de GEO devrait être élevé dans 3 ans
Découvrir les entreprises en croissance
Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières
| Données | Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analyse de l'entreprise | 2026/05/21 05:45 |
| Cours de l'action en fin de journée | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Les revenus | 2026/03/31 |
| Revenus annuels | 2025/12/31 |
Sources de données
Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.
| Paquet | Données | Cadre temporel | Exemple de source américaine * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finances de l'entreprise | 10 ans |
| |
| Estimations consensuelles des analystes | +3 ans |
|
|
| Prix du marché | 30 ans |
| |
| Propriété | 10 ans |
| |
| Gestion | 10 ans |
| |
| Principaux développements | 10 ans |
|
* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.
Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.
Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige
Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github; nous proposons également des guides expliquant comment utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur Youtube.
Découvrez l'équipe de classe mondiale qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.
Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur
Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.
Sources des analystes
The GEO Group, Inc. est couverte par 14 analystes. 4 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.
| Analyste | Institution |
|---|---|
| Manav Patnaik | Barclays |
| Ryan Meliker | Canaccord Genuity |
| Tan Wei | Deutsche Bank |