Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 28
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to NZ$58.50. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$73.32, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 11% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 13
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 15% to NZ$58.64. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$73.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 11% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Feb 20
Mainfreight Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 28, 2026 Mainfreight Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 28, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 04
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 December 2025. Payment date: 19 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 68% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (5.3%). In line with average of industry peers (2.8%). Reported Earnings • Nov 17
First half 2026 earnings released: EPS: NZ$0.93 (vs NZ$1.14 in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: EPS: NZ$0.93 (down from NZ$1.14 in 1H 2025). Revenue: NZ$2.61b (up 2.1% from 1H 2025). Net income: NZ$93.4m (down 19% from 1H 2025). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 4.5% in 1H 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Nov 16
First half dividend of NZ$1.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of NZ$1.00. Ex-date: 11th December 2025 Payment date: 19th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.0%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (68% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (46% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 38% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Nov 14
Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 30, 2026 Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 30, 2026. Annonce • Nov 12
Mainfreight Limited Approves an Interim Dividend for the Fiscal Year 2025, Payable on 19 December 2025 The Directors of Mainfreight Limited have approved an interim dividend of 85 cents per share for the fiscal year 2025, fully imputed at the 28% company tax rate. With the record date on 12 December 2025, payment will be made 19 December 2025. Imputed Amount per Quoted Equity Security $0.15000000. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 24
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 9.7% to NZ$60.10. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$75.52, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 02
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.2% to NZ$61.99. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$77.77, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 10
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 12% to NZ$60.25. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$78.13, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 12
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to NZ$58.75. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$75.62, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Aug 07
Price target decreased by 7.2% to NZ$72.61 Down from NZ$78.21, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of NZ$61.75. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of NZ$2.48 for next year compared to NZ$2.72 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 02
Group MD & Director recently bought NZ$581k worth of stock On the 31st of July, Donald Braid bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly NZ$58.15 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Donald's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 03
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.02 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 July 2025. Payment date: 18 July 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 63% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (6.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.9%). Reported Earnings • Jul 02
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Full year 2025 results: EPS: NZ$2.72 (up from NZ$2.07 in FY 2024). Revenue: NZ$5.24b (up 11% from FY 2024). Net income: NZ$274.3m (up 32% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 4.4% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • May 31
Final dividend of NZ$1.02 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of NZ$1.02. Ex-date: 10th July 2025 Payment date: 18th July 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (55% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (52% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 29% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 30
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: NZ$2.72 (vs NZ$2.07 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: NZ$2.72 (up from NZ$2.07 in FY 2024). Revenue: NZ$5.24b (up 11% from FY 2024). Net income: NZ$274.3m (up 32% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 4.4% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • May 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of New Zealander stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.0% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 07
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 20% to NZ$57.80. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$74.10, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 12% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 19
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 9.2% to NZ$64.90. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$81.24, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 05
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 December 2024. Payment date: 20 December 2024. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 87%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (6.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.7%). Reported Earnings • Nov 16
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: NZ$1.14 (vs NZ$1.24 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: NZ$1.14 (down from NZ$1.24 in 1H 2024). Revenue: NZ$2.55b (up 8.4% from 1H 2024). Net income: NZ$114.6m (down 8.0% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 5.3% in 1H 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Nov 15
Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 30, 2025 Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 30, 2025. Declared Dividend • Nov 15
First half dividend of NZ$1.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of NZ$1.00. Ex-date: 12th December 2024 Payment date: 20th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (87% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (73% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 61% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Nov 13
Mainfreight Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 29, 2025 Mainfreight Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 29, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 16
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.4% to NZ$71.26. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$89.72, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 7.9%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Oct 08
Mainfreight Limited Provides Earnings Guidance for the 26 Weeks (Half Year) Ended September 30, 2024 Mainfreight Limited provided earnings guidance for the 26 weeks (half year) ended September 30, 2024. For the period, the company expects estimated revenue has improved 8.5% to $2.55 billion. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 30
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.8% to NZ$71.36. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$89.75, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 7.9%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Jul 29
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 1 experienced director. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Hayley Buckley was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 05
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.02 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 July 2024. Payment date: 19 July 2024. Payout ratio and cash payout ratio are on the higher end at 83% and 75% respectively. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (7.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Jun 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: NZ$2.07 (down from NZ$4.24 in FY 2023). Revenue: NZ$4.72b (down 17% from FY 2023). Net income: NZ$208.7m (down 51% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 7.5% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Jun 01
Final dividend of NZ$1.02 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of NZ$1.02. Ex-date: 11th July 2024 Payment date: 19th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (48% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (75% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 57% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 29
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: NZ$2.07 (vs NZ$4.24 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: NZ$2.07 (down from NZ$4.24 in FY 2023). Revenue: NZ$4.72b (down 17% from FY 2023). Net income: NZ$208.7m (down 51% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 7.5% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Mar 14
Price target increased by 7.0% to NZ$80.26 Up from NZ$75.01, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of NZ$67.75. Stock is down 1.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of NZ$2.79 for next year compared to NZ$4.24 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 30
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.00 per share at 2.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 December 2023. Payment date: 15 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 52% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (6.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to NZ$66.90, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Logistics industry globally. Total returns to shareholders of 19% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at NZ$44.14 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: NZ$1.24 (vs NZ$2.16 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: NZ$1.24 (down from NZ$2.16 in 1H 2023). Revenue: NZ$2.36b (down 22% from 1H 2023). Net income: NZ$124.6m (down 43% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 5.3% (down from 7.2% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Nov 10
Mainfreight Limited Announces Retirement of Tim Williams as Chief Financial Officer Mainfreight Limited announced Tim Williams's intention to retire post company's year-end result in June 2024. Tim has been company's CFO since the acquisition of Daily Freightways in 1994 and, prior to that, held various finance roles for Daily Freightways since 1984. A total of 40 years of dedicated and loyal, blemish free, service to company. Tim played an integral role during the public listing of Mainfreight in 1996 and has held the CFO position ever since. Graeme Illing, company's New Zealand Financial Controller, will assume the role of CFO upon Tim's departure next year. Graeme, who started with Mainfreight in May 2000, will transition to the role over the next seven months. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 01
Group MD & Director recently bought NZ$678k worth of stock On the 28th of July, Donald Braid bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly NZ$67.77 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Donald has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of NZ$1.4m worth in shares. Price Target Changed • Jul 28
Price target decreased by 13% to NZ$77.10 Down from NZ$89.12, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of NZ$67.99. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of NZ$2.79 for next year compared to NZ$4.24 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from NZ$5.17b to NZ$5.00b. EPS estimate also fell from NZ$3.45 per share to NZ$3.03 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 31% next year vs 9.4% growth forecast for Logistics industry in New Zealand . Consensus price target down from NZ$89.12 to NZ$85.32. Share price fell 4.3% to NZ$67.99 over the past week. Annonce • Jul 12
Mainfreight Limited Announces Management Changes Mainfreight Limited announced Mr. Bryan Mogridge has decided that it would be his last term and will not reapply for board membership from 2026. Hon Richard Prebble has decided not to seek re-election at the July 2024 Annual Meeting. As a consequence of these planned retirements, Mainfreight continues to review suitable future director candidates. Carl Howard-Smith, Mainfreight's long serving legal counsel and former Director has also chosen to retire from the end of July 2023. Regional legal counsel personnel are already in place throughout Mainfreight's locations in New Zealand, Australia, USA, and Europe. This legal team will continue to carry out day-to-day legal responsibilities for business. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 05
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.02 per share at 2.4% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 July 2023. Payment date: 21 July 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (6.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Jul 01
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: NZ$4.24 (up from NZ$3.53 in FY 2022). Revenue: NZ$5.68b (up 8.8% from FY 2022). Net income: NZ$426.5m (up 20% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 6.8% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 25
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: NZ$4.24 (up from NZ$3.53 in FY 2022). Revenue: NZ$5.68b (up 8.8% from FY 2022). Net income: NZ$426.5m (up 20% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 6.8% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • May 13
Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 27, 2023 Mainfreight Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 27, 2023. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 14
Insider recently sold NZ$297k worth of stock On the 13th of February, Jason Braid sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly NZ$73.99 per share. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought NZ$8.2m more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 26
Founding Owner & Executive Chairman recently bought NZ$1.2m worth of stock On the 20th of December, Bruce Plested bought around 17k shares on-market at roughly NZ$68.06 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth NZ$3.5m. Bruce has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of NZ$6.3m worth in shares. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 01
Upcoming dividend of NZ$1.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 December 2022. Payment date: 16 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of New Zealander dividend payers (6.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Reported Earnings • Nov 16
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: NZ$2.16 (vs NZ$1.30 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: NZ$2.16 (up from NZ$1.30 in 1H 2022). Revenue: NZ$3.00b (up 32% from 1H 2022). Net income: NZ$217.0m (up 66% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from 5.8% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 1 experienced director. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Kate Parsons was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2017. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: NZ$2.16 (vs NZ$1.30 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: NZ$2.16 (up from NZ$1.30 in 1H 2022). Revenue: NZ$3.00b (up 32% from 1H 2022). Net income: NZ$217.0m (up 66% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from 5.8% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 01
Insider recently bought NZ$660k worth of stock On the 28th of October, Ben Fitts bought around 9k shares on-market at roughly NZ$73.38 per share. This transaction amounted to 29% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth NZ$3.5m. Insiders have collectively bought NZ$8.2m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 27
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from NZ$5.54b to NZ$6.16b. EPS estimate increased from NZ$4.02 to NZ$4.41 per share. Net income forecast to grow 26% next year vs 8.5% growth forecast for Logistics industry in New Zealand. Consensus price target up from NZ$94.67 to NZ$97.47. Share price rose 12% to NZ$76.00 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 27
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to NZ$76.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Logistics industry globally. Total returns to shareholders of 99% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at NZ$93.74 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 27
Founding Owner & Executive Chairman recently bought NZ$3.5m worth of stock On the 21st of October, Bruce Plested bought around 50k shares on-market at roughly NZ$69.49 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Bruce has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of NZ$5.2m worth in shares.