Investor Optimism Abounds Mainfreight Limited (NZSE:MFT) But Growth Is Lacking

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21x Mainfreight Limited (NZSE:MFT) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in New Zealand have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Mainfreight has been very sluggish. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Is There Enough Growth For Mainfreight?

Mainfreight's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 24%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 93% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 6.6% each year during the coming three years according to the five analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Mainfreight's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Mainfreight's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Mainfreight with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Mainfreight. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.