Spotify Technology (SPOT) Stock Overview
Provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for SPOT from our risk checks.
SPOT Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 369 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
CE
Ceazar
Community ContributorUS$7.43FV • 50.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
36.8%Revenue growth p.a.
2.5k
14
0
64
Spotify Technology S.A. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$441.51 |
| 52 Week High | US$785.00 |
| 52 Week Low | US$405.00 |
| Beta | 1.7 |
| 1 Month Change | -9.71% |
| 3 Month Change | -13.19% |
| 1 Year Change | -31.44% |
| 3 Year Change | 211.47% |
| 5 Year Change | 84.42% |
| Change since IPO | 196.30% |
Recent News & Updates
Spotify: The Sell-Off After Q1 Earnings Is A Gift
Apr 29
SPOT: Future Margin Expansion Will Rely On Recurring Price Hikes
Analysts trimmed Spotify Technology's fair value estimate slightly to $786.63. This reflects lower price targets across several firms, balanced by views that improved profit margins and an updated future P/E assumption still support the long-term case.
SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes And AI Features Will Support Margins
The analyst price target for Spotify has edged slightly lower by about $2 to reflect a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, even as analysts continue to highlight potential support from improving profit margins and product investments, including AI features. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify reflects a mixed but engaged view, with analysts actively revisiting ratings and price targets as they reassess AI risk, margin trajectory, and the pace of price changes.SPOT: Recurring Price Increases Will Support Future Margin Expansion Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target framework for Spotify higher to $784.59 from $767.84, reflecting slightly firmer assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E in light of a mix of supportive rating actions, incremental price hike expectations, and ongoing debate over AI related risks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify centers on two themes you should keep in mind: pricing power in Premium subscriptions and how much AI changes the risk profile for the business.Recent updates
Spotify: The Sell-Off After Q1 Earnings Is A Gift
Apr 29SPOT: Future Margin Expansion Will Rely On Recurring Price Hikes
Analysts trimmed Spotify Technology's fair value estimate slightly to $786.63. This reflects lower price targets across several firms, balanced by views that improved profit margins and an updated future P/E assumption still support the long-term case.SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes And AI Features Will Support Margins
The analyst price target for Spotify has edged slightly lower by about $2 to reflect a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, even as analysts continue to highlight potential support from improving profit margins and product investments, including AI features. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify reflects a mixed but engaged view, with analysts actively revisiting ratings and price targets as they reassess AI risk, margin trajectory, and the pace of price changes.SPOT: Recurring Price Increases Will Support Future Margin Expansion Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target framework for Spotify higher to $784.59 from $767.84, reflecting slightly firmer assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E in light of a mix of supportive rating actions, incremental price hike expectations, and ongoing debate over AI related risks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify centers on two themes you should keep in mind: pricing power in Premium subscriptions and how much AI changes the risk profile for the business.SPOT: Recurring Price Hikes And Firmer Margins Will Support Revaluation Potential
Spotify's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from $889.24 to $767.84 as analysts factor in slightly higher discount rates and a lower future P/E, partly offset by firmer margin expectations and views that AI related risks to the platform and its pricing power are limited. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify highlights a split view on AI risk and pricing power, but there is a clear cluster of bullish analysts who still see upside in the story despite a period of target cuts across the Street.SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes Will Support Margins Despite AI Concerns
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Spotify to $649 from $662. This reflects a modest increase in the discount rate and slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and future P/E.
Spotify (SPOT): The Audio Super-Platform – Scaling Profitability in the "Year of Raising Ambition"
Spotify Technology (SPOT) has decisively silenced the skeptics who questioned its ability to turn massive scale into meaningful profit. Following its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings report on February 10, 2026 , the stock experienced a powerful 12% surge , eventually stabilizing around $511.84 as of February 27.SPOT: 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Offset Rising AI Subscription Risk
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Spotify, reflected in a lower fair value estimate of $662.14 from $733.44, as they factor in higher perceived AI related risk to paid streaming, modestly softer growth assumptions, a richer discount rate, and a more conservative future P/E multiple, despite higher projected profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify Technology points to a mixed but highly engaged analyst backdrop, with multiple firms revisiting their models around AI risk, pricing, and execution on product initiatives.
Spotify - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation
️Business Overview Key Metrics Total: -1/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 17.56% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 10.87% +0 ⚠️ Last 5-Year ROIC: 4.68% -2 ❌ Estimated Cost of Capital: 7.71% (greater than ROIC) -1 ❌ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +2.07% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 15.46% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +1 ✅ Estimated Debt Rating: A1 -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Despite its Narrow Moat rating by Morningstar, Spotify still shows an operating margin around ~15-20% and expanding. Its revenue and EPS growth is also solid between 10-15%.Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) 26% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings
Feb 05
SPOT: Free Tier Funnel And 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Support Leadership
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Spotify, with our fair value estimate easing from US$748.60 to about US$733.44. This reflects slightly lower assumed future P/E multiples, which more than offset modestly higher long term revenue growth and profit margin expectations following a wave of recent target cuts and rating changes across the Street.SPOT: Future Price Increases And Margin Goals Will Drive Rerating Potential
Analysts have trimmed their Spotify Technology price targets, with our fair value estimate moving from US$913.70 to US$889.24. They are factoring in slightly softer margin assumptions, modestly lower growth estimates, and a higher future P/E, while still referencing potential benefits from pricing changes and longer term margin goals.
SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Collaboration Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Spotify higher, citing a supportive mix of pricing power, a constructive view on music industry economics, and a willingness to underwrite a richer future P/E multiple of around 38.7x. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify reflects a mix of enthusiasm for the business model and pricing potential alongside debate over how much optimism is already reflected in the share price.SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook
Our fair value estimate for Spotify Technology has been raised by about $37 to roughly $569 per share, as analysts grow more confident in accelerating revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and the earnings power implied by recent price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Spotify highlights a mix of optimism around pricing power, product innovation, and artificial intelligence, alongside a more measured tone on valuation and execution risk.SPOT: User Gains From Free Tier Funnel Will Drive Competitive Leadership
Spotify’s analyst price target has been modestly increased from approximately $736 to $749, as analysts point to rising expectations for revenue growth and margin expansion. This outlook is fueled by upcoming price increases and ongoing product enhancements.We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve
Nov 11Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Nov 07SPOT: Upcoming Price Increases And Product Changes Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Spotify Technology by approximately $10 to $736. They cite a balanced outlook in light of evolving industry pricing opportunities and the company's recent financial performance trends.Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment
Spotify’s consensus analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower, from $747.78 to $746.42. This change reflects updated expectations around revenue growth and profit margins as analysts weigh recent price increases, user engagement momentum, and the outlook for cost management.Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Spotify Technology, adjusting the price target from $756 to $748. More balanced risk-reward expectations and moderated growth outlooks for key metrics offset recent model updates and price increases.Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment
Analysts have raised Spotify’s price targets, citing robust subscriber growth, improved product differentiation and engagement, and greater pricing power despite near-term cost headwinds, leading to a consensus Analyst Price Target increase from $739.83 to $756.18. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets on expectations of continued price increases in key markets and further upward revisions to long-term revenue and profit estimates.Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?
Jul 31Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Could Easily Take On More Debt
Jul 02We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve
May 07Subdued Growth No Barrier To Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) With Shares Advancing 28%
May 05Spotify Is Executing Brilliantly, But The Stock Isn't A Buy Anymore (Rating Downgrade)
Apr 16Spotify: The Road Ahead Is Tough, But It Is Positioned Well
Mar 14Spotify: Just Getting Started
Feb 14Spotify Q4: Profitability Is Only Getting Better
Feb 05
Narrative update from Michael Paige
Retain Dominant Market Share Position In Paid Music StreamingThis assumptions appears to be tracking well and ahead of my conservative estimates. I estimated 8% growth per year in MAU and premium subsSpotify Q4 Preview: Changing Creator Incentives
Jan 22Spotify: The Operational Leverage Run Is Close To Being Over, What's Next?
Jan 15Spotify: My Top Investment Pick For 2025
Dec 15From $15 Billion To $100 Billion: Lessons From Our Spotify Investment
Dec 08
Expanding Audiobook Offerings And AI Innovation Propel Dynamic Growth Trajectory
Expansion into audiobooks and AI-enhanced music discovery are set to boost user engagement and revenue growth.Spotify Q3: Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Improvement
Nov 12Spotify: Who's There? TikTok - Buy
Oct 03
Narrative update from Richard Bowman
Monthly active users up 2% Q/Q and 14% Y/YSpotify: Why We Remain Confident In The Position We've Built
Sep 13Spotify: Beware Slowing MAU Growth, Lock In Gains And Sell (Rating Downgrade)
Aug 24Narrative update from Michael Paige
In terms of market share, nothing has particularly changed, and reports still indicate that it has around one-third of market share in the industry.Spotify Q2: Subscriber Gains With Improved Monetization
Jul 23Spotify: Ready To Jump As Price And Bundling Adjustment Flow To Earnings
Jul 16Spotify's Price Hikes Make It Expensive For Everyone
Jul 08Shareholder Returns
| SPOT | US Entertainment | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -14.8% | -2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1Y | -31.4% | -6.7% | 27.8% |
Return vs Industry: SPOT underperformed the US Entertainment industry which returned -6.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: SPOT underperformed the US Market which returned 27.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| SPOT volatility | |
|---|---|
| SPOT Average Weekly Movement | 8.8% |
| Entertainment Industry Average Movement | 9.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: SPOT has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: SPOT's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 7,000 | Alex Norström | www.spotify.com |
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners.
Spotify Technology S.A. Fundamentals Summary
| SPOT fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$90.78b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$3.17b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$20.54b |
28.6x
P/E Ratio4.4x
P/S RatioIs SPOT overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| SPOT income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | €17.53b |
| Cost of Revenue | €11.86b |
| Gross Profit | €5.67b |
| Other Expenses | €2.96b |
| Earnings | €2.71b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 13.17 |
| Gross Margin | 32.32% |
| Net Profit Margin | 15.45% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did SPOT perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/03 07:20 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 71 analysts. 36 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Samuel Lourensz | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |
| William Noel Milner | Arete Research Services LLP |