Northern Star Resources Limited

ASX:NST Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$26.9b

Northern Star Resources Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Northern Star Resources is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 21.1% and 13.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.8% in 3 years.

Key information

21.1%

Earnings growth rate

19.55%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth14.7%
Revenue growth rate13.9%
Future return on equity18.77%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated22 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 16

NST: Higher Long Term Gold Pricing Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lifted Northern Star Resources' price target by A$5 to A$35, citing updated long term commodity price forecasts for gold and other metals that feed into their valuation models. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to updated long term commodity price forecasts feeding directly into Northern Star Resources' valuation, with the price target lifted to A$35 from A$30.
Narrative Update • Apr 30

NST: Higher Long Term Gold Pricing And Buyback Plan Will Support Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on Northern Star Resources to A$35 from A$30, citing refreshed commodity price assumptions and updated views on revenue growth, margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the higher A$35 price target as a reflection of refreshed commodity price assumptions for gold and other key inputs, which feeds directly into higher modeled earnings and P/E support.
Narrative Update • Apr 16

NST: Higher Commodity Price Deck Is Expected To Support Future Upside

Northern Star Resources' analyst price target has shifted from A$24.70 to A$35.00, with analysts linking the change to updated long term commodity price forecasts that have fed through to refreshed targets across Australian metals and mining names. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows bullish analysts lifting their price target on Northern Star Resources to A$35.00, with the change linked to updated long term commodity price assumptions across copper, aluminum, PLV met coal, Newcastle thermal coal and gold.
Narrative Update • Apr 02

NST: Higher Long Term Gold Pricing Is Expected To Support Upside

Analysts lifted their price target for Northern Star Resources to A$35 from A$30, citing updated long-term commodity price assumptions for gold and other metals as the main reason for the change. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to revised long term commodity price assumptions for gold and other metals as a key driver behind the higher A$35 price target for Northern Star Resources, compared with the prior A$30 level.
Narrative Update • Mar 19

NST: Higher Gold Assumptions And 2026 Output Outlook Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts now see Northern Star Resources' fair value at A$28.10, down from A$30.96. The shift reflects updated commodity price assumptions that also fed into a higher Street price target of A$35.00, supported by revised long term forecasts for gold and other key metals.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

NST: Updated Commodity Outlook And 2026 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects

Analysts have raised their price target for Northern Star Resources to A$35 from A$30, citing updated commodity price assumptions and a lower projected future P/E multiple as key drivers of the higher fair value estimate, now at about A$30.96. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher A$35 price target as aligned with refreshed commodity assumptions, which lift their fair value range for the shares relative to the prior A$30 level.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

NST: Higher Commodity Assumptions Will Likely Sustain Overvaluation Risk For Shares

Narrative update on Northern Star Resources Analysts have lifted their price target on Northern Star Resources to A$35 from A$30, citing updated long term commodity price assumptions for gold and other metals, a slightly higher discount rate, modestly lower revenue growth and margin forecasts, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple that together support a refreshed fair value estimate of about A$18.33. Analyst Commentary The latest target price revision to A$35 follows changes to long term assumptions for several commodities, including gold.
Narrative Update • Feb 04

NST: Softer Production Guidance Will Likely Pressure Returns Despite Higher Profit Assumptions

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Northern Star Resources from A$17.43 to A$17.92, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Northern Star Resources updated its production guidance for fiscal 2026, now targeting 1,600 to 1,700 koz of annual output, compared with the previous range of 1,700 to 1,850 koz (Company guidance).
Narrative Update • Jan 21

NST: Softer Production Guidance Will Likely Undermine Elevated Gold Price Optimism

Analysts have lifted their price target for Northern Star Resources to A$17.43 from A$17.06 as they incorporate updated assumptions for revenue growth of 14.50%, profit margins of 23.84% and a future P/E of 16.64x. What's in the News Northern Star Resources revised its production guidance for fiscal 2026, now targeting 1,600 to 1,700 koz of output, compared with the previous range of 1,700 to 1,850 koz (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 07

NST: Revised 2026 Production Outlook Will Support Stronger Long Term Appeal

Analysts have lifted their price target on Northern Star Resources by about A$0.87. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth assumptions and profit margin expectations, alongside a slightly lower future P/E multiple.
Analysis Article • Dec 29

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Narrative Update • Dec 16

NST: Elevated Gold Price Optimism Will Likely Fade Against Cost Pressures

Analysts have lifted their price target on Northern Star Resources, raising fair value from about A$13.56 to A$17.06, citing higher gold price assumptions, stronger expected revenue growth, and improving profit margins, despite a modest increase in the discount rate and slightly lower future P E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has highlighted a more constructive stance from some global banks, including a higher A$22 price target from JPMorgan, reflecting upgraded gold price assumptions.
Narrative Update • Dec 02

NST: Higher Gold Prices And Stake Sale Will Guide Future Performance

Northern Star Resources' analyst price target has increased from A$18 to A$22, as analysts cite improved gold prices along with stronger expected margins and growth. Analyst Commentary Analysts have provided updated perspectives on Northern Star Resources in light of recent market developments.
Narrative Update • Nov 18

NST: Gold Price Momentum And Stake Sale Will Shape Performance Ahead

Narrative Update on Northern Star Resources The analyst price target for Northern Star Resources has been raised from A$18 to A$22, reflecting analysts' expectations of stronger growth prospects, supported by higher gold prices. Analyst Commentary Recent street research highlights a range of perspectives on Northern Star Resources following the increase in its price target.
Analysis Article • Nov 11

Northern Star Resources Limited's (ASX:NST) CEO Looks Like They Deserve Their Pay Packet

Key Insights Northern Star Resources to hold its Annual General Meeting on 18th of November Total pay for CEO Stuart...
Narrative Update • Nov 01

NST: Gold Price Strength And Stake Sale Will Shape Earnings Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for Northern Star Resources by A$4 to A$22. This reflects increased confidence in the company’s fair value amid forecasts of stronger gold prices and improved financial performance.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Fimiston And Hemi Projects Will Secure Future Gold Value

Northern Star Resources' analyst price target has risen significantly from A$22.83 to A$25.11. Analysts cite expectations of stronger gold prices and improved operating metrics.
New Narrative • Oct 15

Finding Value When There’s None Left: A Case for Northern Star (NST)

Finding genuine value in the current market is becoming increasingly difficult. Stock indices are at or near all-time highs.
Narrative Update • Oct 04

Fimiston And Hemi Projects Will Secure Future Gold Value

Northern Star Resources’ analyst price target has been raised from A$20.29 to A$22.83. Analysts cited higher projected gold prices and improved profit margins as reasons for revising their expectations upward.
Analysis Article • Sep 24

Optimistic Investors Push Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) Shares Up 28% But Growth Is Lacking

Northern Star Resources Limited ( ASX:NST ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...
Narrative Update • Sep 19

Fimiston And Hemi Projects Will Secure Future Gold Value

Despite disappointing near-term updates, a weaker FY26 outlook, and increased risks at the KCGM project, analysts have modestly raised Northern Star Resources’ fair value, increasing the consensus price target from A$19.96 to A$20.29. Analyst Commentary FY26 outlook was worse than anticipated, prompting a re-evaluation of future earnings potential.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Fimiston And Hemi Projects Will Secure Future Gold Value

Despite a modest increase in the consensus Analyst Price Target to A$19.96, JPMorgan downgraded Northern Star Resources due to higher-than-expected operational and financial risks in the FY26 outlook, particularly regarding the KCGM asset. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan reduced its rating and price target following a disappointing pre-quarterly update and worse-than-expected FY26 guidance from Northern Star Resources.
Analysis Article • Aug 27

Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST)

Northern Star Resources Limited ( ASX:NST ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. We did some digging...
Analysis Article • Jun 17

Is Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
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New Narrative • Nov 12

Gold Rush Expansion Fuels Profitable Growth Amid Challenging Landscape

Strategic production expansion and infrastructure development may enhance capacity and efficiency, potentially boosting margins and earnings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:NST - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/202811,8833,6993,2166,25414
6/30/202710,6192,8212,1405,15715
6/30/20267,6531,6981903,02015
12/31/20256,9601,5481912,731N/A
9/30/20256,6881,4444242,842N/A
6/30/20256,4151,3406572,954N/A
3/31/20255,9791,1436802,719N/A
12/31/20245,5439467032,484N/A
9/30/20245,2327926672,277N/A
6/30/20244,9216396302,070N/A
3/31/20244,6766875601,896N/A
12/31/20234,4307364901,721N/A
9/30/20234,2816613911,536N/A
6/30/20234,1315852921,352N/A
3/31/20234,0114043061,405N/A
12/31/20223,8902233191,458N/A
9/30/20223,8483384451,544N/A
6/30/20223,8064525711,631N/A
3/31/20223,6607894611,463N/A
12/31/20213,5141,1263521,294N/A
9/30/20213,1371,0793681,185N/A
6/30/20212,7611,0333841,077N/A
3/31/20212,508674404958N/A
12/31/20202,256315424840N/A
9/30/20202,114286386775N/A
6/30/20201,972258348711N/A
3/31/20201,783229282609N/A
12/31/20191,595199216508N/A
9/30/20191,498177N/A443N/A
6/30/20191,401155N/A379N/A
3/31/20191,278176N/A387N/A
12/31/20181,154197N/A395N/A
9/30/20181,059196N/A374N/A
6/30/2018964194N/A353N/A
12/31/2017931183N/A374N/A
9/30/2017900186N/A366N/A
6/30/2017869189N/A359N/A
12/31/2016792178N/A321N/A
9/30/2016789172N/A352N/A
6/30/2016786165N/A383N/A
12/31/2015690145N/A404N/A
9/30/2015709127N/A381N/A
6/30/2015728109N/A359N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NST's forecast earnings growth (21.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).

Earnings vs Market: NST's earnings (21.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NST's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NST's revenue (13.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NST's revenue (13.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/30 15:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Northern Star Resources Limited is covered by 28 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Regan BurrowsBell Potter