Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 5.57%Analysts have raised their price target for Northern Star Resources by A$4 to A$22. This reflects increased confidence in the company’s fair value amid forecasts of stronger gold prices and improved financial performance.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have offered a variety of perspectives on Northern Star Resources’ outlook, reflecting both positive factors and areas of ongoing caution as price targets are revised.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point to stronger gold price forecasts as a key driver for upward revisions in valuation. This supports greater confidence in the company’s future earnings potential.
- Recent operational performance has exceeded expectations. This adds to optimism about consistent financial execution and reliability in meeting production targets.
- Improved cost management and efficiency gains are seen as enhancing margins. These factors further support the fair value increase.
- The company’s solid balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation are viewed positively. These qualities reduce financial risks and enable growth initiatives.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of higher gold prices, noting that any reversal could negatively impact earnings and share valuation.
- Uncertainties around long-term production growth and potential operational disruptions are highlighted as ongoing risks.
- Some concern persists regarding the competitive landscape, with rivals potentially outpacing Northern Star Resources on new projects or technological advances.
- The firm’s Neutral ratings from major brokerages reflect balanced views. This indicates that while there is upside, execution risk and market volatility remain in focus.
What's in the News
- Gold Fields has agreed to sell a A$1.1 billion stake in Northern Star Resources as part of a larger acquisition of an Australian gold mine (Bloomberg).
- Northern Star Resources reported operating results for the first quarter ended September 30, 2025, with 381,000 ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,522 per ounce.
- The company reaffirmed its operating guidance for fiscal year 2026 and is aiming to deliver 1.7 million to 1.8 million ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,300 to AUD 2,700 per ounce.
- Northern Star Resources announced an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.30 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has risen from A$25.11 to A$26.51, reflecting a moderate increase in the company's estimated worth.
- Discount Rate has moved up slightly from 7.19% to 7.24%, indicating a marginally higher cost of capital assumption.
- Revenue Growth projection has increased from 16.82% to 18.10%, highlighting stronger expected future sales performance.
- Net Profit Margin has improved from 26.81% to 28.60%, suggesting better anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E has decreased from 19.74x to 18.93x, which means the company is now valued at a lower multiple of forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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