Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 2.83%Narrative Update on Northern Star Resources
The analyst price target for Northern Star Resources has been raised from A$18 to A$22, reflecting analysts' expectations of stronger growth prospects, supported by higher gold prices.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research highlights a range of perspectives on Northern Star Resources following the increase in its price target. Analysts point to meaningful drivers for the company's valuation and growth, as well as factors that may temper enthusiasm.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see higher gold prices as a tailwind that could improve the company’s revenue outlook and margins.
- Updated price targets suggest confidence in Northern Star’s ability to capture positive gold market dynamics.
- Growth prospects are supported by robust operations and a favorable commodity environment.
- The company's financial discipline is viewed as supporting ongoing investment and resilience in volatile markets.
Bearish Takeaways
- Some analysts note that, despite price target increases, a Neutral rating is maintained. This reflects concerns over valuation or execution risks.
- There is caution that gold price volatility could affect short-term performance and investor sentiment.
- Competitive pressures among Australian gold miners may place limits on margin expansion.
- Execution of growth strategies will be closely monitored in the coming quarters to justify the higher valuation.
What's in the News
- Gold Fields has agreed to sell a A$1.1 billion stake in Northern Star Resources as part of a deal related to acquiring control of an Australian gold mine (Bloomberg).
- Northern Star Resources reported operating results for the first quarter ended September 30, 2025, selling 381,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,522 an ounce.
- The company confirmed operating guidance for fiscal year 2026, with a target of 1.7 to 1.8 million ounces of gold sold at all-in sustaining costs ranging from AUD 2,300 to AUD 2,700 an ounce.
- Northern Star Resources announced an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.30 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly from A$26.51 to A$27.26, indicating a modest uplift in perceived intrinsic value.
- The Discount Rate has risen from 7.24% to 7.68%, reflecting a higher required rate of return on future cash flows.
- The Revenue Growth Projection has edged up from 18.10% to 18.35%, suggesting a minor improvement in expected sales expansion.
- The Net Profit Margin forecast has grown from 28.60% to 28.90%, pointing to slightly higher expected profitability.
- The Future P/E Ratio has risen from 18.93x to 19.38x, indicating a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.