Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.01%Despite a modest increase in the consensus Analyst Price Target to A$19.96, JPMorgan downgraded Northern Star Resources due to higher-than-expected operational and financial risks in the FY26 outlook, particularly regarding the KCGM asset.
Analyst Commentary
- JPMorgan reduced its rating and price target following a disappointing pre-quarterly update and worse-than-expected FY26 guidance from Northern Star Resources.
- FY26 outlook flagged greater operational and financial risks than previously anticipated.
- Concerns cited over medium-term project outlook, particularly for the KCGM asset.
- Increased risk of further negative updates following upcoming KCGM site visit.
- Downside risks now outweighing near-term upside potential, driving a more cautious stance.
What's in the News
- Announced ordinary dividend of AUD 0.30 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
- Reiterated group sales guidance for FY26 at 1.7–1.85 million ounces of gold, with September quarter production at the high end of cost guidance; mill shutdowns scheduled across all 3 production centers this quarter.
- Forecasts FY27 gold sales of 1.7–1.5 million ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,300–2,700 per ounce, expecting cost per ounce to improve through the year.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Northern Star Resources
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from A$19.76 to A$19.96.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Northern Star Resources has risen slightly from 12.3% per annum to 12.7% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Northern Star Resources has risen slightly from 22.03% to 22.54%.
Disclaimer
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