Update shared on01 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.19%Northern Star Resources’ consensus price target was reduced to A$19.26 following a disappointing update and weaker FY26 guidance, with increased perceived risks to operational performance and growth, and a revised fair value reflecting these concerns.
Analyst Commentary
- Downgrade follows a disappointing pre-quarterly update and weaker-than-expected FY26 guidance.
- FY26 outlook flagged as worse than anticipated, leading to reduced investor confidence.
- KCGM site visit scheduled, with potential for further updates on medium-term project outlook.
- Increased perceived risks to downside in operational and growth prospects.
- Price target reduced to A$17.50 (from A$21.25) reflecting lower earnings expectations and higher project uncertainty.
What's in the News
- Northern Star Resources reiterated FY26 sales guidance of 1.7–1.85 million ounces of gold and introduced FY27 guidance of 1.5–1.7 million ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AUD 2,300–2,700/oz, with costs forecast to improve through the year; planned mill shutdowns are scheduled, with the June quarter expected to be the strongest due to access to higher-grade ore.
- Northern Star is viewed as the leading contender among ASX peers for a potential acquisition of Bellevue Gold Limited, leveraging potential synergies by redirecting Bellevue ore to its underutilised Thunderbox facility, though recent De Grey Mining acquisition may impact its capacity.
- The company completed its share buyback program by repurchasing 2,398,054 shares (0.21%) for AUD 45.49 million in 2025, bringing the total to 27,172,098 shares (2.35%) for AUD 300 million since August 2022.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Northern Star Resources
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from A$20.41 to A$19.26.
- The Future P/E for Northern Star Resources has significantly fallen from 19.47x to 13.80x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Northern Star Resources has risen slightly from 20.70% to 21.66%.
Disclaimer
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