New Risk • Jun 28
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended September 2025. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 14% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported September 2025 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£47.0m market cap, or US$62.0m). Board Change • Jan 01
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Stephen Bolton is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Announcement • Dec 24
Naked Wines plc (AIM:WINE) commences an Equity Buyback Plan for 7,400,413 shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital, under the authorization approved on September 3, 2025. Naked Wines plc (AIM:WINE) commences share repurchases on December 22, 2025, under the program mandated by the shareholders in the Annual General Meeting held on September 3, 2025. As per the mandate, the company is authorized to repurchase up to 7,400,413 shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital. The minimum price which may be paid for each ordinary share is £0.075 pence and the maximum price which may be paid for each ordinary share is the higher of an amount equal to 105% of the average of the middle market quotations for an ordinary share, as derived from the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List, for the five business days immediately preceding the day on which the ordinary share is purchased and an amount equal to the higher of the price of the last independent trade of an ordinary share and the current highest independent bid for an ordinary share as derived from the London Stock Exchange Trading System. The purchases will be funded from company's distributable profits. The purchased shares will be cancelled or held as treasury. The authorization will expire at the conclusion of the next AGM or on September 30, 2026. As of December 4, 2025, the company had 74,004,135 ordinary shares in issue and no shares in treasury. Board Change • Dec 15
Less than half of directors are independent There are 4 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 4 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Non-Executive Director Stephen Bolton is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2022. Independent Non-Executive Chair Jack Pailing was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Dec 11
First half 2026 earnings released: UK£0.043 loss per share (vs UK£0.088 loss in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: UK£0.043 loss per share (improved from UK£0.088 loss in 1H 2025). Revenue: UK£89.5m (down 20% from 1H 2025). Net loss: UK£3.14m (loss narrowed 52% from 1H 2025). Revenue is expected to decline by 7.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 3.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Nov 21
Naked Wines plc Reiterates Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending 31 March 2026 Naked Wines plc reiterated earnings guidance for the year ending 31 March 2026. For the year, the company's performance has continued to be in line with the Company's communicated FY26 guidance so the company expects revenue to be between £200 million to £216 million. Announcement • Nov 20
Naked Wines plc to Report First Half, 2026 Results on Dec 09, 2025 Naked Wines plc announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on Dec 09, 2025 New Risk • Nov 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 24% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 24% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£51.3m market cap, or US$67.4m). Board Change • Oct 01
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. Senior Independent Director Deirdre Runnette is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Announcement • Sep 20
Naked Wines plc Appoints Jan-Hendrik Mohr as Non-Executive Director, Effective from 19 September 2025 Naked Wines plc announced the appointment of Mr. Jan-Hendrik Mohr as a Non-Executive Director with immediate effect. Jan is currently CEO at CHAPTERS Group AG. Founded in 1998, CHAPTERS delivers mission-critical digital solutions for public sector, enterprise financial technologies clients with over 50 subsidiaries and EUR 170 million in revenue. Jan ran JMX Capital, an investment partnership, for eight years prior to joining CHAPTERS. JMX has been an investor in Naked Wines since 2016. In addition, Jan led AIM-listed Software Circle plc as Chairman from 2016-2024 through a period of strategic transition. Naked Wines appointed David Atchison as an adviser to the Board. David is a senior marketing executive with extensive experience driving growth for consumer and digital brands. He served as President of New Engen, leading one of the nation's fastest-growing digital marketing firms, and held senior leadership roles at Zulily during its rapid expansion into a leading online retailer. With a proven record of scaling customer acquisition and brand engagement through data-driven marketing, he brings deep expertise in performance, strategy, and innovation. As a Board Advisor, he will support Naked Wines in advancing its marketing strategy and customer growth initiatives. Mr. Jan-Hendrik Markus Mohr, aged 36, has held the following directorships and/or partnerships in the past five years: Current directorships and/or partnerships: JMX Capital GmbH; JMX Consulting GmbH; TPJMS GmbH; JMX US LLC; CHAPTERS Group AG; CHAPTERS Beteiligungs GmbH; CHAPTERS Beteiligungen Verwaltungs GmbH; Stanza Management Beteiligungs GmbH; FIB Frankfurt International Bank AG. Past directorships and/or partnerships: Software Circle plc (formerly Grafenia plc). Announcement • Aug 11
Naked Wines plc (AIM:WINE) announces an Equity Buyback for £2 million worth of its shares. Naked Wines plc (AIM:WINE) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to £2 million worth of its shares pursuant to a non-discretionary arrangement with Panmure Liberum Limited. All ordinary shares repurchased by the Group under the program will be cancelled. The purpose of the program is to further enhance shareholder returns. The program will continue until the earlier of the date on which the maximum amount payable by the company has been reached, or November 4, 2025, conditional on the share buyback authority being renewed at the Company's 2025 AGM. Announcement • Aug 08
Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 03, 2025 Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 03, 2025. Location: the offices of panmure liberum, 25 ropemaker street, ec2y 9ly, london United Kingdom Reported Earnings • Aug 05
Full year 2025 earnings released: UK£0.066 loss per share (vs UK£0.28 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: UK£0.066 loss per share (improved from UK£0.28 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: UK£250.2m (down 14% from FY 2024). Net loss: UK£4.90m (loss narrowed 77% from FY 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 3.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 29
Naked Wines plc to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 05, 2025 Naked Wines plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Aug 05, 2025 Announcement • Jul 22
Naked Wines Announces Appointment of Jack Pailing as Non-Executive Chair of the Board, Effective Immediately Naked Wines announced the appointment of Jack Pailing as Non-Executive Chair of the Board, with immediate effect. Jack, who has served as the Group's Senior Independent Director since 31 March 2025, has been appointed following the conclusion of a comprehensive and competitive recruitment process, led by an external executive search firm. Jack brings a deep understanding of Naked Wines' strategy and operations, as well as significant experience in governance and capital markets. His appointment provides continuity in leadership as the Group continues to execute the New Strategic Plan that it presented at its Strategy Event in March 2025. Deirdre will continue to serve as a Non-Executive Director and return to her role as Senior Independent Director. New Risk • Jun 29
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended September 2024. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported September 2024 fiscal period end). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (UK£136k sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£54.8m market cap, or US$75.1m). New Risk • Jun 20
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: UK£136k This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Minor Risks Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (UK£136k sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£62.9m market cap, or US$84.9m). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 3,200% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -UK£0.001 to -UK£0.033 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£252.4m. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target of UK£1.48 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.3% to UK£0.77 over the past week. Announcement • Mar 31
Naked Wines plc Announces Directorate Changes Following the successful launch of Naked Wines' new Strategic Plan, Rowan Gormley has notified the Board of his decision to step down as Non-Executive Chairman and as a Director of the Company with immediate effect. Deidre Runnette, Senior Independent Director, will assume the role of Non-Executive Chairman on an interim basis until a successor is appointed. Price Target Changed • Mar 27
Price target increased by 27% to UK£1.48 Up from UK£1.17, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 81% above last closing price of UK£0.82. Stock is up 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.001 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.28 last year. New Risk • Mar 19
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of British stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£35.5m market cap, or US$46.2m). New Risk • Jan 29
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£37.0m market cap, or US$46.0m). Announcement • Dec 03
Naked Wines plc to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Dec 10, 2024 Naked Wines plc announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Dec 10, 2024 Board Change • Dec 01
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. No experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Founder & Non-Executive Chairman Rowan Gormley is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 15
Independent Director recently bought UK£59k worth of stock On the 9th of October, Jack Pailing bought around 100k shares on-market at roughly UK£0.59 per share. This transaction amounted to 14% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought UK£246k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 08
Independent Director recently bought UK£120k worth of stock On the 3rd of September, Jack Pailing bought around 230k shares on-market at roughly UK£0.52 per share. This transaction amounted to 23% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought UK£438k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Announcement • Sep 04
Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 30, 2024 Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 30, 2024. Location: the offices of fladgate llp, ninth floor, 16 great queen st, wc2b 5dg, london United Kingdom Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Full year 2024 earnings released: UK£0.28 loss per share (vs UK£0.24 loss in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: UK£0.28 loss per share (further deteriorated from UK£0.24 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: UK£290.4m (down 18% from FY 2023). Net loss: UK£20.8m (loss widened 20% from FY 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 6.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 2.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 17 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Aug 23
Naked Wines plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 28, 2024 Naked Wines plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results at 8:00 AM, GMT Standard Time on Aug 28, 2024 Announcement • Apr 02
Naked Wines plc Appoints Rodrigo Maza as Group Chief Executive Officer Naked Wines plc announced the appointment of Rodrigo Maza as Group Chief Executive Officer effective from April 2, 2024, the first day of the Group's 2025 financial year. Price Target Changed • Jan 19
Price target increased by 15% to UK£1.17 Up from UK£1.02, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 109% above last closing price of UK£0.56. Stock is down 57% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.032 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.24 last year. Announcement • Jan 18
Melanie Allen Steps Down from the Board and Her Role as Non-Executive Director of Naked Wines plc Naked Wines plc announced that Melanie Allen is stepping down from the Board and her role as Non-Executive Director with immediate effect. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 20
Independent Director recently bought UK£62k worth of stock On the 15th of December, Jack Pailing bought around 144k shares on-market at roughly UK£0.43 per share. This transaction amounted to 27% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought UK£320k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Dec 18
First half 2024 earnings released: UK£0.16 loss per share (vs UK£0.006 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: UK£0.16 loss per share (further deteriorated from UK£0.006 loss in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£132.3m (down 20% from 1H 2023). Net loss: UK£11.7m (loss widened UK£11.2m from 1H 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 4.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 57% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Price Target Changed • Dec 15
Price target decreased by 9.0% to UK£1.02 Down from UK£1.12, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 112% above last closing price of UK£0.48. Stock is down 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.032 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.24 last year. Announcement • Dec 14
Naked Wines plc to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Dec 15, 2023 Naked Wines plc announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Dec 15, 2023 New Risk • Nov 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of British stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£21.4m market cap, or US$26.3m). Price Target Changed • Nov 07
Price target decreased by 17% to UK£1.00 Down from UK£1.20, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 246% above last closing price of UK£0.29. Stock is down 73% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.083 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.24 last year. Announcement • Sep 29
Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 23, 2023 Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 23, 2023, at 15:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: Ninth Floor, 16 Great Queen St London United Kingdom Agenda: to vote on resolutions related to the Company's Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 3 April 2023 ("ARA"). Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 24
Independent Director recently bought UK£58k worth of stock On the 20th of September, Jack Pailing bought around 92k shares on-market at roughly UK£0.63 per share. This transaction amounted to 24% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought UK£158k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Sep 19
Full year 2023 earnings released: UK£0.24 loss per share (vs UK£0.033 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: UK£0.24 loss per share (down from UK£0.033 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£354.0m (up 1.1% from FY 2022). Net loss: UK£17.4m (down UK£19.8m from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 4.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 48% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Sep 08
Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 29, 2023 Naked Wines plc, Annual General Meeting, Sep 29, 2023, at 15:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: offices of Fladgate LLP, Ninth Floor, 16 Great Queen St, London WC2B 5DG - London United Kingdom New Risk • Aug 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. High level of non-cash earnings (56% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£44.4m market cap, or US$56.4m). Buying Opportunity • Aug 03
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 40%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£0.85, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Board Change • Jul 13
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 3 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Director Jack Pailing was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. New Risk • Jul 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. High level of non-cash earnings (56% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£65.9m market cap, or US$83.8m). Price Target Changed • Jul 04
Price target decreased by 30% to UK£1.23 Down from UK£1.75, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of UK£0.89. Stock is down 45% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.0045 for next year compared to UK£0.033 last year. Buying Opportunity • Mar 02
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 5.6%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.31, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 6.8% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 1,324% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 150% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -UK£0.006 to -UK£0.015 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£343.2m. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target of UK£1.76 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.2% to UK£1.31 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Jan 27
Now 26% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 15%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.67, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 5.3% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 1,324% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 19
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from UK£347.5m to UK£343.3m. 2023 losses expected to reduce from -UK£0.03 to -UK£0.01 per share. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 49% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.72. Share price fell 12% to UK£1.22 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 05
Naked Wines plc Announces Resignation of Justin Apthorp as Non-Executive Director Naked Wines plc announced that Justin Apthorp has notified the Board of his intention to step down from his position as Non-Executive Director after 35 years at the Group, including 21 years of Board service. Justin will leave the Board effective immediately. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from UK£352.0m to UK£347.5m. 2023 losses expected to reduce from -UK£0.04 to -UK£0.03 per share. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 74% next year. Consensus price target of UK£1.75 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 13% to UK£1.22 over the past week. Board Change • Dec 14
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Senior Independent Non-Executive Director Deirdre Runnette was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Dec 08
First half 2023 earnings released: UK£0.006 loss per share (vs UK£0.014 profit in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: UK£0.006 loss per share (down from UK£0.014 profit in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£165.8m (up 4.0% from 1H 2022). Net loss: UK£473.0k (down 147% from profit in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 80% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 07
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to UK£1.08, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 33.6x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 48% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£0.47 per share. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to UK£1.66 Down from UK£3.02, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 58% above last closing price of UK£1.05. Stock is down 84% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.041 compared to earnings per share of UK£0.033 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 21
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 54% share price gain to UK£1.22, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 37.9x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£1.63 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from UK£370.4m to UK£359.6m. 2023 losses expected to reduce from -UK£0.05 to -UK£0.04 per share. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£3.42 to UK£3.02. Share price rose 54% to UK£1.22 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Aug 19
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 61%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.80, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 26% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 39% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 63% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from UK£383.5m to UK£377.3m. Losses expected to increase from UK£0.03 per share to UK£0.06. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income decline 5.8% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£4.18 to UK£3.50. Share price rose 4.2% to UK£1.58 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jun 29
Group COO exercised options to buy UK£102k worth of stock. On the 23rd of June, Nicholas Devlin exercised 94.36k options to receive shares at no cost, then sold around 34.91k of them at UK£1.72 each and kept the remainder. Since September 2021, Nicholas' direct individual holding has increased from 106.61k shares to 111.64k. Company insiders have collectively bought UK£140k more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jun 23
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.014 (vs UK£0.11 loss in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.014 (up from UK£0.11 loss in 1H 2021). Revenue: UK£159.3m (up 1.4% from 1H 2021). Net income: UK£1.01m (up UK£9.07m from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 0.6% (up from net loss in 1H 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.6%, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Price Target Changed • Jun 23
Price target decreased to UK£4.87 Down from UK£6.71, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 200% above last closing price of UK£1.62. Stock is down 78% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.019 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.14 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 13
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses forecast to reduce from -UK£0.04 to -UK£0.03 per share. Revenue forecast steady at UK£349.5m. Consumer Retailing industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 12% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£7.41 to UK£7.10. Share price was steady at UK£6.04 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Dec 09
No longer forecast to breakeven The 8 analysts covering Naked Wines no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of UK£1.50m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of UK£700.0k in 2024. Price Target Changed • Nov 22
Price target decreased to UK£7.51 Down from UK£8.15, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of UK£6.33. Stock is up 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.063 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.14 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target decreased to UK£7.89 Down from UK£8.53, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of UK£7.09. Stock is up 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.08 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.14 last year. Board Change • Sep 02
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. No experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Non-Executive Director Justin Apthorp is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2006. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Executive Departure • Aug 07
Independent Chairman Ian Harding has left the company On the 5th of August, Ian Harding's tenure as Independent Chairman ended after less than a year in the role. As of March 2021, Ian still personally held 12.00k shares (UK£90k worth at the time). Ian is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 3.33 years. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 24
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought UK£128k worth of stock On the 19th of July, Darryl Graham Rawlings bought around 16k shares on-market at roughly UK£8.06 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold UK£340k more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jul 15
Group COO exercised options and sold UK£91k worth of stock On the 9th of July, Nicholas Devlin exercised options to acquire 11k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of UK£8.04 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to March 2021, Nicholas' total compensation was 33% salary and 67% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since September 2020, Nicholas' direct individual holding has increased from 54.24k shares to 106.61k. Company insiders have collectively sold UK£622k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jun 13
Full year 2021 earnings released: UK£0.14 loss per share (vs UK£0.093 loss in FY 2020) The company reported a solid full year result with improved revenues and control over costs, although losses increased. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£340.2m (up 68% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£10.0m (loss widened 50% from FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 79 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Breakeven Date Change • Jun 13
Forecast breakeven pushed back to 2024 The 6 analysts covering Naked Wines previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 44% per year to 2023. The company is expected to make a profit of UK£2.90m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 77% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule.