Is There An Opportunity With Naked Wines plc's (LON:WINE) 43% Undervaluation?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
October 29, 2021
AIM:WINE
Source: Shutterstock

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Naked Wines plc (LON:WINE) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Naked Wines

The method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (£, Millions) -UK£9.20m -UK£2.13m UK£3.07m UK£9.80m UK£18.5m UK£25.9m UK£33.2m UK£39.8m UK£45.5m UK£50.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 39.89% Est @ 28.19% Est @ 20% Est @ 14.27% Est @ 10.26%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 4.8% -UK£8.8 -UK£1.9 UK£2.7 UK£8.1 UK£14.6 UK£19.5 UK£23.9 UK£27.3 UK£29.8 UK£31.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£146m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 4.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£50m× (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (4.8%– 0.9%) = UK£1.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£1.3b÷ ( 1 + 4.8%)10= UK£809m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£955m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£7.4, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
AIM:WINE Discounted Cash Flow October 30th 2021

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Naked Wines as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Naked Wines, we've compiled three relevant items you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does WINE have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does WINE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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Simply Wall St does a detailed discounted cash flow calculation every 6 hours for every stock on the market, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any company just search here. It’s FREE.

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