Naked Wines plc (LON:WINE) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To UK£1.75

Naked Wines plc (LON:WINE) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at UK£250m, statutory losses exploded to UK£0.066 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Naked Wines after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering Naked Wines, is for revenues of UK£219.2m in 2026. This implies a not inconsiderable 12% reduction in Naked Wines' revenue over the past 12 months. Naked Wines is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of UK£0.023 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£230.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.053 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Naked Wines

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 52% to UK£1.75, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Naked Wines' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 12% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 0.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Naked Wines to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Naked Wines. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Naked Wines you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.