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Advantage Energy Ltd.TSX:AAV Stock Report

Market Cap CA$1.8b
Share Price
CA$10.87
My Fair Value
CA$14
23.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y13.2%
7D4.2%
Portfolio Value
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Advantage Energy Ltd.

TSX:AAV Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.8b

Advantage Energy (AAV) Stock Overview

Engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. More details

AAV fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 53.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 50.13% per year

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 30.9%

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (8.6%) are lower than last year (16%)


AAV Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 8 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

AAV logo
Advantage Energy

LNG Canada Exports Will Revitalize Western Canadian Gas Markets

Key Takeaways Rising global demand for natural gas and cost improvements position Advantage Energy for sustained revenue, cash flow, and margin growth. Disciplined capital allocation and asset optimization are expected to drive stronger shareholder returns and earnings performance.
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CA$14.23
FV
23.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.46%
Revenue growth p.a.
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4users have followed this narrative
10 days ago author updated this narrative
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Advantage Energy

Rising Global Demand And Carbon Capture Will Unlock Market Opportunity

Key Takeaways Integration of new assets and sustained outperformance position the company for industry-leading margin expansion and unmodeled upside in revenue and earnings. Enhanced export capacity, diversified markets, and emissions initiatives support robust cash flow growth and long-term gains from favorable energy market trends.
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CA$18.28
FV
40.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
19.96%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
4 days ago author updated this narrative
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Advantage Energy

Western Gas Oversupply Will Strain Earnings With Clean Energy Support

Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on Western Canadian gas exposes earnings to price volatility, while ongoing capital needs may limit future shareholder returns if market conditions sour. Growth prospects face long-term challenges from global decarbonization, regulatory costs, and structural oversupply, despite efficiency gains and clean energy initiatives.
View narrative
CA$12.00
FV
9.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
14.59%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
9 days ago author updated this narrative
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Advantage Energy Ltd. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Advantage Energy
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$10.87
52 Week HighCA$12.75
52 Week LowCA$7.81
Beta0.70
1 Month Change-1.36%
3 Month Change-5.48%
1 Year Change13.23%
3 Year Change-8.89%
5 Year Change391.86%
Change since IPO171.75%

Recent News & Updates

Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Not Flying Under The Radar

May 30
Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Not Flying Under The Radar

Recent updates

Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Not Flying Under The Radar

May 30
Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Not Flying Under The Radar
User avatar

Integration Of Charlie Lake Assets Will Improve Future Cash Flow And Profitability

Strategic acquisitions and spending cuts have led to improved cash flow, profitability, and potential for earnings growth through disciplined financial management.

Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) P/E Still Appears To Be Reasonable

Feb 27
Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) P/E Still Appears To Be Reasonable

Is There An Opportunity With Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) 43% Undervaluation?

Jan 09
Is There An Opportunity With Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) 43% Undervaluation?

Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Nov 12
Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Oct 02
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Aug 23
Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Advantage Energy's (TSE:AAV) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

Aug 01
Advantage Energy's (TSE:AAV) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

Is Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Using Too Much Debt?

Jul 30
Is Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Using Too Much Debt?

Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Revenue Forecasts By 19%

Jun 25
Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Revenue Forecasts By 19%

Is Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) A Risky Investment?

Apr 10
Is Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) A Risky Investment?

Investors Don't See Light At End Of Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) Tunnel

Feb 12
Investors Don't See Light At End Of Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) Tunnel

A Look At The Fair Value Of Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Jan 28
A Look At The Fair Value Of Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV)

Here's Why Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Nov 01
Here's Why Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Is There An Opportunity With Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) 48% Undervaluation?

Sep 16
Is There An Opportunity With Advantage Energy Ltd.'s (TSE:AAV) 48% Undervaluation?

We Think Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

May 19
We Think Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

An Intrinsic Calculation For Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Feb 21
An Intrinsic Calculation For Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Jan 30
Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Here's Why We Think Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Dec 30
Here's Why We Think Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Oct 10
Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Shareholder Returns

AAVCA Oil and GasCA Market
7D4.2%2.7%1.7%
1Y13.2%8.2%18.8%

Return vs Industry: AAV exceeded the Canadian Oil and Gas industry which returned 8.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AAV underperformed the Canadian Market which returned 18.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AAV's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AAV volatility
AAV Average Weekly Movement4.1%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement6.8%
Market Average Movement8.5%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market18.4%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market3.0%

Stable Share Price: AAV has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Canadian market.

Volatility Over Time: AAV's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200193Mike Belenkiewww.advantageog.com

Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd.

Advantage Energy Ltd. Fundamentals Summary

How do Advantage Energy's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AAV fundamental statistics
Market capCA$1.82b
Earnings (TTM)CA$54.12m
Revenue (TTM)CA$625.94m
33.5x
P/E Ratio
2.9x
P/S Ratio

Is AAV overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
AAV income statement (TTM)
RevenueCA$625.94m
Cost of RevenueCA$259.96m
Gross ProfitCA$365.98m
Other ExpensesCA$311.86m
EarningsCA$54.12m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.32
Gross Margin58.47%
Net Profit Margin8.65%
Debt/Equity Ratio50.9%

How did AAV perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/08/24 22:39
End of Day Share Price 2025/08/22 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advantage Energy Ltd. is covered by 28 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research