The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Advantage Energy
What Is Advantage Energy's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Advantage Energy had CA$213.9m in debt in June 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CA$45.8m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$168.1m.
How Healthy Is Advantage Energy's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Advantage Energy had liabilities of CA$141.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$427.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CA$45.8m in cash and CA$106.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$416.1m.
Advantage Energy has a market capitalization of CA$1.94b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Advantage Energy has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.30. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 25.3 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Better yet, Advantage Energy grew its EBIT by 1,212% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Advantage Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent two years, Advantage Energy recorded free cash flow of 42% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Happily, Advantage Energy's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Advantage Energy's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Advantage Energy (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:AAV
Advantage Energy
Engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada.
High growth potential low.