Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited

LSE:GKP Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£293.1m

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Valuation

Is GKP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GKP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GKP (£1.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GKP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GKP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GKP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.1x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GKP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GKP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.6x
GENL Genel Energy
3.8x15.4%UK£217.9m
TLW Tullow Oil
0.3x-6.0%UK£328.4m
ENQ EnQuest
0.2x-9.7%UK£225.4m
SAVE Savannah Energy
2.1x43.9%UK£344.5m
GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum
3.3x35.8%UK£293.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (1.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GKP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GKP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GKP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GKP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.35
UK£1.70
+25.7%
17.0%UK£1.91UK£1.20n/a4
Nov ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.70
+32.2%
17.0%UK£1.91UK£1.20n/a4
Oct ’25UK£1.17
UK£1.71
+46.2%
17.3%UK£1.90UK£1.20n/a4
Sep ’25UK£1.26
UK£1.71
+36.1%
17.3%UK£1.90UK£1.20n/a4
Aug ’25UK£1.32
UK£1.63
+23.9%
19.6%UK£1.87UK£1.18n/a3
Jul ’25UK£1.49
UK£1.61
+8.0%
18.5%UK£1.90UK£1.20n/a3
Jun ’25UK£1.43
UK£1.53
+6.5%
25.2%UK£1.88UK£0.99n/a3
May ’25UK£1.16
UK£1.55
+33.3%
24.7%UK£1.89UK£1.01n/a3
Apr ’25UK£1.13
UK£1.79
+58.4%
32.9%UK£2.66UK£1.00n/a4
Mar ’25UK£1.00
UK£1.81
+81.4%
32.2%UK£2.65UK£1.00n/a4
Feb ’25UK£1.02
UK£1.84
+79.9%
32.0%UK£2.65UK£0.99n/a4
Jan ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.87
+44.7%
31.6%UK£2.66UK£0.99n/a4
Dec ’24UK£1.29
UK£2.16
+67.8%
16.0%UK£2.76UK£1.90n/a4
Nov ’24UK£1.21
UK£2.16
+79.3%
16.0%UK£2.76UK£1.90UK£1.294
Oct ’24UK£1.02
UK£2.29
+123.4%
19.7%UK£2.97UK£1.92UK£1.175
Sep ’24UK£0.92
UK£2.42
+161.9%
26.5%UK£3.42UK£1.90UK£1.265
Aug ’24UK£1.21
UK£2.54
+110.4%
21.4%UK£3.35UK£1.89UK£1.325
Jul ’24UK£1.20
UK£2.57
+113.7%
20.5%UK£3.36UK£1.90UK£1.495
Jun ’24UK£1.35
UK£2.61
+93.1%
21.8%UK£3.47UK£1.91UK£1.435
May ’24UK£1.36
UK£2.65
+94.8%
18.6%UK£3.42UK£2.10UK£1.165
Apr ’24UK£1.46
UK£2.98
+104.2%
14.2%UK£3.52UK£2.22UK£1.135
Mar ’24UK£2.08
UK£3.07
+47.8%
16.3%UK£3.41UK£2.20UK£1.004
Feb ’24UK£2.06
UK£3.07
+49.2%
16.3%UK£3.41UK£2.20UK£1.024
Jan ’24UK£2.01
UK£3.07
+52.8%
16.3%UK£3.41UK£2.21UK£1.294
Dec ’23UK£2.12
UK£3.11
+47.0%
17.1%UK£3.44UK£2.19UK£1.294
Nov ’23UK£2.12
UK£3.33
+57.1%
15.0%UK£3.64UK£2.47UK£1.214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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