UMG logo

Universal Music GroupENXTAM:UMG Stock Report

Market Cap €47.7b
Share Price
€25.99
My Fair Value
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
€29
11.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y23.1%
7D-4.0%
Portfolio Value
​
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Universal Music Group N.V.

ENXTAM:UMG Stock Report

Market Cap: €47.7b

Universal Music Group (UMG) Stock Overview

Operates as a music company worldwide. More details

UMG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends2/6

Rewards

Trading at 7.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 65.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt


UMG Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 14 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

UMG logo
Universal Music Group
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts

Global Expansion And DSP Upgrades Will Spur Streaming Amid Risks

Key Takeaways Strategic global expansion and strong subscription revenue growth across diverse geographies highlight significant revenue opportunities for UMG in emerging markets. Innovations like Streaming 2.0 and DSP collaborations are poised to enhance ARPU, improving UMG's revenue and operating margins through strategic reorganization.
View narrative
€29.42
FV
11.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
6.54%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
7users have followed this narrative
13 days ago author updated this narrative
UMG logo
Universal Music Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts

Aging Demographics And Regulatory Risks Will Undermine Music Industry

Key Takeaways Demographic shifts and disruptive technologies threaten long-term revenue growth by reducing traditional music consumption and undermining Universal's gatekeeper role. Regulatory pressures and platform consolidation risk squeezing margins through increased costs and unfavorable revenue splits as the industry landscape evolves.
View narrative
€22.00
FV
18.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
6.05%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
5 days ago author updated this narrative
UMG logo
Universal Music Group
AN
AnalystHighTarget
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts

High-speed Internet And Digital Streaming Will Drive Global Music Experiences

Key Takeaways Accelerating digital adoption and super-premium tier rollout could drive faster revenue growth and margin expansion than currently expected, especially in emerging global markets. Investment in direct-to-consumer platforms, AI, and leveraging a vast music catalog positions UMG for resilient, high-margin recurring revenue beyond traditional streaming.
View narrative
€38.08
FV
31.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
9.36%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
6 days ago author updated this narrative
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Universal Music Group N.V. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Universal Music Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price€25.99
52 Week High€29.19
52 Week Low€20.38
Beta0.84
1 Month Change-4.87%
3 Month Change3.92%
1 Year Change23.06%
3 Year Change17.28%
5 Year Changen/a
Change since IPO3.55%

Recent News & Updates

Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio

Jul 14
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio

Should You Investigate Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) At €27.32?

Jun 29
Should You Investigate Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) At €27.32?

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Jun 15
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To €0.28

May 19
Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To €0.28

Recent updates

Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio

Jul 14
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio

Should You Investigate Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) At €27.32?

Jun 29
Should You Investigate Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) At €27.32?

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Jun 15
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To €0.28

May 19
Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To €0.28

Is Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Using Too Much Debt?

May 13
Is Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Using Too Much Debt?

Is Now The Time To Put Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) On Your Watchlist?

Apr 29
Is Now The Time To Put Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) On Your Watchlist?

Results: Universal Music Group N.V. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Apr 01
Results: Universal Music Group N.V. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Mar 26
Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Results: Universal Music Group N.V. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Mar 10
Results: Universal Music Group N.V. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

A Look At The Fair Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Feb 27
A Look At The Fair Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Feb 05
Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Does Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

Jan 15
Does Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

At €24.70, Is Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) Worth Looking At Closely?

Dec 30
At €24.70, Is Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) Worth Looking At Closely?

A Look At The Fair Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Nov 27
A Look At The Fair Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)
author-image

Innovative Streaming And Global Expansion Set To Boost Engagement And Drive Earnings Growth

Universal Music Group's focus on an artist-centric strategy and innovative streaming plans is set to boost revenue via enhanced customer engagement and monetization.

Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

Oct 15
Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)

A Look Into Universal Music Group's (AMS:UMG) Impressive Returns On Capital

Oct 02
A Look Into Universal Music Group's (AMS:UMG) Impressive Returns On Capital

Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Sep 19
Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Here's Why We Think Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Sep 05
Here's Why We Think Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Shareholder Returns

UMGNL EntertainmentNL Market
7D-4.0%-3.2%-0.7%
1Y23.1%2.9%1.4%

Return vs Industry: UMG exceeded the Dutch Entertainment industry which returned 7.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: UMG exceeded the Dutch Market which returned 0.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is UMG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
UMG volatility
UMG Average Weekly Movement3.5%
Entertainment Industry Average Movement5.7%
Market Average Movement3.7%
10% most volatile stocks in NL Market7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in NL Market2.3%

Stable Share Price: UMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Dutch market.

Volatility Over Time: UMG's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
20209,636Lucian Graingewww.universalmusic.com

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. It operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. The Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations.

Universal Music Group N.V. Fundamentals Summary

How do Universal Music Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
UMG fundamental statistics
Market cap€47.66b
Earnings (TTM)€2.09b
Revenue (TTM)€11.83b
22.8x
P/E Ratio
4.0x
P/S Ratio

Is UMG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
UMG income statement (TTM)
Revenue€11.83b
Cost of Revenue€6.75b
Gross Profit€5.09b
Other Expenses€3.00b
Earnings€2.09b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2024

Next Earnings Date

Jul 31, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)1.14
Gross Margin42.99%
Net Profit Margin17.63%
Debt/Equity Ratio58.3%

How did UMG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.0%
Current Dividend Yield
46%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/07/28 07:00
End of Day Share Price 2025/07/28 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Universal Music Group N.V. is covered by 31 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
JULIEN ROCHBarclays
William PackerBNP Paribas Exane
Adrien de Saint HilaireBofA Global Research